14th June 2019
Pandemonium, John Martin, 1841
The United Kingdom has an Article 50 extension until 31st October 2019, and it is wasting its time.
One particular of this is the current leadership contest in the governing Conservative party.
Many of the candidates support, or can accept, a “No Deal” Brexit.
The political support for these “No Deal” candidates is an index of how little has been learned by the governing party over the last three years about Brexit.
It is almost as if Brexit has not unfolded the way it has, in front of them.
The denialism and delusion is rampant.
The United Kingdom is likely to get the “No Deal” Brexit its governing party deserves, regardless of the suffering and chaos this will bring.
To watch this play out in real-time is depressing, but there seems little that can be done.
The problems and choices have been explained again and again, the European Union has been consistent and plain, the difficulties – including in respect of the Irish border – have been described in detail.
But the MPs of the governing party – and some other MPs and many pundits – do not care for such inconveniences.
They are going to “press on” anyway.
The only hope for sensible people if a “No Deal” candidate wins the leadership election is that, to become Prime Minister, that new leader also has to have the “confidence’ (that is, a sustainable majority) of the House of Commons.
And the majority of the House of Commons is (or at least was) for avoiding a “No Deal” Brexit.
That the new leader of the Conservatives becomes – or stays as – Prime Minister is not automatic or necessary.
There are conceivable scenarios where another politician, who wishes to avoid a “No Deal” Brexit, could have the confidence of the House of Commons, with a coalition.
Or, alternatively, a “No Deal” Prime Minister could be checked and balanced by the Commons.
Or, it could all be a dreadful disaster.
Thank you for reading me on this new(ish) blog, where I am hoping to blog almost daily now I am back from a break.
I expect to be blogging here more often, instead of spending time on Twitter.
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