15th October 2021
There is a lovely quote from Ronald Reagan:
‘On my desk in the Oval Office, I have a little sign that says: There is no limit to what a man can do or where he can go if he doesn’t mind who gets the credit.”‘
(Source)
And this describes more-or-less where we are now with Brexit.
The European Union does not care what the political and media supporters of the United Kingdom say or do.
But it knows the United Kingdom government cares desperately what its political and media supporters say or do.
So we are now in the situation where there is a convenient compact.
The European Union decides what will happen at each stage of Brexit so as to protect its interests and those of member states, especially Ireland.
Speedy Article 50 notification without prior negotiation; sequencing; the joint declaration; the financial settlement; the exit agreement; the trade and cooperation agreement; the Northern Irish protocol proposals, et cetera.
And in turn, the United Kingdom can call each stage a triumph for its hard bargaining, and so get the domestic coverage it craves.
Everyone is a winner.
(Or they think they are.)
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We have been told by folk in Northern Ireland that the European Commission’s proposals reflect discussions with key stakeholders concerned with making the Northern Ireland Protocol work for the people who live and work there, including those in business.
That the EC’s representatives went to Northern Ireland, spoke with, listened to and gave due weight to the opinions of those who live there.
Those stakeholders have welcomed that the EC has talked with them and clearly taken account of their views, unlike Lord Frost who barely seems to register their existence and has yet to share his proposals for the Northern Ireland Protocol with them.
EC has banked goodwill with folk in Northern Ireland right across the political spectrum.
Goodwill is, of course, an alien concept for Lord Frost; Boris Johnson and the rest of the Cabinet. And arguably, for quite a lot of our London based media, too.
The EC team went back to Brussels via Cardiff where they received a warm, positive welcome from the First Minister, Mark Drakeford, who reminds those not familiar with Labour in Government what a real Labour leader sounds, acts and looks like.
A leader who has had a good pandemic and not squandered the credit he built up during it, unlike Boris Johnson.
A leader who won a General Election against the odds and the opinions of many of the London based Commentariat.
Drakeford has no problems calling Frost and Johnson out on the failings of the Brexit deal which they negotiated and now seek to disavow.
It is a pity Drakeford is standing down in the next year or so.
We need political leaders capable of telling the voters what they need to hear, but do not always want to hear, and who do not think compromise is a dirty word and consensus building, a sign of weakness.
Alas, the Leader of the Opposition at Westminster is no Drakeford and shows little signs of ever developing into one.
Allowing another / others to take the credit was something I learned a long time ago in another life in corporate communications. If the outcome was perceived good they took the credit, if the converse, you took the blame. But yes, the main thing was to get the thing done to one’s own satisfaction and you and your team privately knew where the credit was really due. At every turn, the EU has outsmarted London. But then that hasn’t been very hard has it? A pretty low bar.
So much winning that it hurts.
Exactly. UK is being offered a narrative in which UK can be a hero. EU audiences have long since stopped caring. Please Lord Whoever (Frosty?) and Boris with no clothes, take the opportunity offered and glide into history as Churchillian saviours! EU will take care that there is an economic benefit, whether UK sees it or not.
This is perhaps the best grounds for optimism. The EU, as you say, doesn’t need to be seen to have won, although I would suggest it does need to be seen (by its other trading partners) not to have caved in on anything they’d like it to concede to them too. The key question is whether Johnson is in on this cynical game, or if there’s a risk that he will be seduced by his own hype and try to push on further, to a point where the EU cannot accommodate him. None of us would enjoy the trade war that would result if either side misjudges this delicate game, and no amount of saying “we told you so” will actually compensate pro-EU individuals for what we’d all lose.
The European Commission has strengthened the hands of the pro Northern Ireland Protocol parties and thrown down the gauntlet to the antis ahead of the Northern Ireland Assembly election which must be held on or before 5th May 2022.
We came, we listened, we learnt and we acted with the interests of Northern Ireland in mind.
Lord Frost on the other hand …
Perhaps Boris Johnson, the Classicist, should explain the meaning of pyrrhic victory to Frost?
I do hope you are correct – I’ve hoped for some time that the EU are playing the long game – and have thought our government is not competent enough to see this – it’s called ‘entitlement’ for some of them and ‘sycophantasy’ for the rest, with a few ‘zealots’ thrown in for good measure. What a dreadful state my poor country is in.