16th February 2023
The news is promising:
NEW: A special restricted meeting of EU ambassadors has been called for tomorrow to discuss “#EU–#UK relations” as a deal on #NorthernIreland Protocol appears to be edging closer
— Jessica Parker (@MarkerJParker) February 16, 2023
So let us think what would happen if – and it is an if – the Northern Irish Protocol issue is ever resolved.
(And some of you will doubt it ever will be.)
As it stands the focus of the post-Brexit relationship is Northern Ireland and the protocol.
The government of the United Kingdom is seeking to be able to break international law for the sake of doing something about the protocol.
The government is also telling its political and media supporters that it will withdraw from the European Convention on Human Rights as a distraction, it seems, from any compromise on the protocol.
Everything in UK-EU relations – at least on the United Kingdom side – appears to be governed by the protocol.
So imagine: what if that issue was no longer there?
What then?
The cynical will think that there would have to be a new issue for the governing party to rally support of Brexiters: that a new dispute with the European Union will be raise, even contrived, and off we will go again.
Maybe.
But there would also be the possibility of the pragmatists and realists to guide policy and move on to what needs to happen next: a sustainable basis for a close UK-EU relationship.
The preference of this blog (ever since the referendum result) has been for the United Kingdom to leave the European Union and to move quickly into the closest possible association agreement, with as much participation in the single market as the European Union will allow us and which the United Kingdom government can also get past its supporters.
Negotiations for such an ideal arrangement should ideally have started by now, and discussions need to start by the time the periodic review of the relationship begins under the withdrawal agreements.
A deal on the Northern Irish Protocol will enable this grown-up and sensible discussion to (finally) take place.
Ho, ho.
Of course, this side of a general election there is little prospect of the government openly seeking a closer relationship with the European Union.
But such a close relationship would necessarily require the Northern Irish Protocol to be practically settled first.
(By “practically settle” I mean that the tensions and frictions occasioned by the protocol have viable work-around solutions – for, as this blog has averred before, the ultimate issue of there being a post-Brexit trading border on the island of Ireland can only be solved by Irish unification – or by the United Kingdom rejoining the European Union.)
And there would then need to be a period where the United Kingdom approach to policy is – frankly – less crazy than seeking to break international law as leverage so as to get its way in a dispute.
United Kingdom policy and politics on Brexit would need to calm down for a while.
*
Any deal in the coming weeks on the protocol between the United Kingdom and the European Union will also need to survive attacks from the Democratic Unionist Party and some of the government’s own backbenchers.
These attacks may delay the issue being practically resolved – but these attacks may be time limited in their potency.
But until such attacks do become politically impotent, it may be that practical resolution of the Northern Irish Protocol issue will happen, but not just yet.
We will have to wait.
(In the longer term, of course, the issue of there being a trading border on the island of Ireland probably will be resolved by Irish unification.)
And if the Northern Irish Protocol issue is practically resolved then we perhaps can have fresh and interesting conversations about our post-Brexit relationship with the European Union.
Gosh.
Imagine that.
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« with as much participation in the single market as the European Union will allow us and which the United Kingdom government can also get past its supporters »
Is that before or after Rishi and Co square the circle?
The longer the current childishness continues, the stronger the EU’s bargaining position when London comes crawling, begging for ‘favours’.
Excellent as usual, what could take the place of the protocol? Well fishing comes to mind but to all intents and purposes the fishermen have found a work around – so it’s not really an issue anymore.
I think al but the most ardent Brexiteers have realised what a monumental error this has been but prejudice runs deep and convictions (correct or incorrect) are strongly held and won’t be easily overturned.
There is no doubt a substantial majority of people and a massive majority of businesses want the relationship revisited, but watching Ed Milliband being interviewed on the subject recently it appears that Labour want nothing to do with the thorny question of free movement, and without it and a role for the ECJ we are stuck where we are………so it is really difficult to imagine that this is going further than NI.
Good blog. What I’ve never understood is why the Tory party is so opposed to having ANY dealings with the EU. We’ve left; fine. But does that mean that we ONLY want to deal with countries outside the EU? We desperately need nurses. EU?? Why not?
I too wish it were not the case but it always seems that people feel compelled to eliminate what went before, to swing, often violently, from one set of ideas and behaviour to another, ditching any merits of the previous philosophy in case they are “tarnished” by it. Totem-polling.
Northern Ireland will reunify. The Unionist population is slowly dying out, the huge advantage of being part of the EU, the wealth of the south versus the increasing gap to the UK, will drive the referendum that will create greater Ireland.
It may perhaps be that the main consequence of the Protocol being settled now will be that a future Labour government can get straight on with trying to secure a better relationship with the EU, without having to delay for a period while they sorted the Protocol out first and dealt with the inevitable screaming from the DUP and their Loyalist friends. That’s actually well worth having.
Clever question, David. The byline assumption of Irish unification is just perfect.
Once upon a time there was the concept of a ‘road map’.
I think it is now safe to say that Brexit only leads to rejoining the EU, with or without Irish unification on the way.
The protocol is the hors d’oeuvres.
I found this comment to be incredibly uplifting because the conclusion is, I feel correct, : The realities of BREXIT will lead us back to rejoining the EU, even if it must wait for the present generation of political leaders to be replaced with a younger more pragmatic generation.
I’m glad you found it so. Having spent the last 6 years despairing of any sensible moves from this government, at last I think I can detect a way out of this mess. Each small step back from sister opens up possibilities. It may take years and I may not live to see it but it will come.
disaster obviously!
Of course the “close association agreement” you speak of or (shock, horror) single market membership would solve the NIP issue in one fell swoop.
I am bemused by your optimism – while hoping you are justified in it.
The problem I see is the DUP is not arguing about the Protocol in good faith, so the goal posts for any settlement will only move again.
In 1922, Northern Ireland was created by literally drawing a border between Protestant and Catholic parishes — cementing a refusal to accept the democratic vote for an independent Ireland.
This “Protestant State for a Protestant People” survives to this day on this archaic division.
The DUP is not boycotting government because of the NI Protocol, but because it finds intolerable the idea of allowing a Catholic First Minister – which would be the consequence of the last NI elections.
The Good Friday Agreement promised “parity of esteem” for both sides of NI – its foundation but also its fatal flaw.
It actually means every voter has to choose a side to be esteemed for, hence the growing extremism there with the hardline DUP and Sinn Fein increasingly replacing the more moderate Unionist and Social Democratic parties.
The middle ground, represented by the also growing Alliance Party, is impotent precisely because it hasn’t chosen a side to represent – and is hence effectively excluded from sharing power under the GFA.
The original “Protestant” and “Catholic” labels can also be now better (though not perfectly) represented by the terms “British” and “Irish”, with Alliance arguably representing “Northern Irish”.
But, as a Northern Irish state is not viable, Alliance is still irrelevant until they chose a side.
Remain – and now the Protocol – were/are supported by the combined majority Irish and pragmatic Northern Irish (Alliance) vote.
The minority DUP/British vote was for Brexit and against the Protocol.
The DUP wanted Brexit in the hope that the border on the island of Ireland created in 1922 would be more marked.
In summary, the DUP want a stronger border in Ireland, and no Catholic/Irish First Minister – despite anything the majority of NI voters might want.
The Protocol can only deliver the opposite of both, so the big question is whether Sunak is going to stand up to the DUP/ERG or continue (once again) to refuse to confront reality.
Adding a prime minister who refuses to accept reality (Johnson) to a party that refuses to accept democracy (DUP) is what created this toxic mess in the first place.
It’s hard to be optimistic when Brexit has made a refusal to confront reality the norm in British politics.
Reality always wins, but it’s a long and rocky road you follow to avoid it.
The TCA, like all international agreements , is not perfect.
As an Eu citizen I think the Eu can live with it and feel the majority of people in Ireland feel the same.
The Agreement allows for a multitude of future consultative committees and possible tweaks . However these are not intended to replicate the Eu/ Uk position from the years 1973/2016.
The Ukrainian war represents a real and existential threat to the Eu . Against this background changes to the future Uk/Eu relations are not a high priority.
Sometimes I think these points are not appreciated in the Uk body politic but there again at other times I think they are !
Many of the contributors to this discussion are not facing up to some basic political realities of Northern Ireland. While it is true that in the latest census Catholics (and those from a Catholic background) narrowly outnumber the number of Protestants (and those from a Protestant background), that is for the entire population. Cultural Protestants still outnumber cultural Catholics by a considerable margin among voters. And the pace of change in the composition of the electorate is both slow and slowing. One might add that Protestants are far more fervent in their opposition to a united Ireland than Catholics are enthusiastic about a united Ireland (as the survey evidence over many years has shown). Indeed, it was only the threat that Brexit posed to the open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic that motivated a change in Catholic attitudes, so that prior to the 2016 referendum, there was only lukewarm support for a united Ireland even among those who identified as supporters of nationalist parties. There was no prospect then of a border poll. That may be seen as a tribute to the improvement in conditions for cultural Catholics as a result of the Good Friday Agreement. It is likely that the increase in support for a united Ireland among voters in Northern Ireland will diminish if there is a deal over the Protocol. It is also likely to diminish if the Tories are defeated in the next UK general election and a government elected that seeks better relations with the EU. Of course, it is to be hoped there will be a deal over the Protocol before then, not least because of the potential of the continuation of the dispute to reignite political violence in Northern Ireland (with possible spill-over elsewhere). But it also needs to be acknowledged that a deal over the Protocol can only mitigate the damage done to Northern Ireland by Brexit. I have long wondered why voters in England were so ready ignore the well-grounded warnings of Blair and Major on the likely consequences of a leave vote in 2016 for peace in Northern Ireland. Perhaps part of the reason was that some imagined that in the event of Brexit Northern Ireland would conveniently disappear into a united Ireland. Sorry, your hopes on this point are misplaced. People are of course perfectly entitled to believe that Ireland should never have been partitioned etc. etc., but that doesn’t change the realities on the ground now. And it is these that policy has to address.
Brexit voters in England don’t care about Ireland. It just doesn’t enter their heads. And their leaders just assume that the non-English (and Northeners) have to fall in with (Southern England). They are wilfully ignorant and arrogant in equal measure.