18th April 2023
The next general election, we are told, is likely to be within the next eighteen months.
The last general election, back in December 2019, returned the Conservatives with a whopping, substantial majority.
That majority, in turn, can be seen as having been the electoral dividend of Brexit – of getting Brexit “done” – and also of seeing off the Faragist Ukip and then Brexit parties, as well as routing Corbyn’s Labour Party.
It was, in political turns, a highly successful partisan political manoeuvre.
Boris Johnson and his party in December 2019 had the very greatest prize the constitution of the United Kingdom could bestow: a large single-party majority in the House of Commons.
Something the Conservative party had rarely had since the governments of Margaret Thatcher.
And what has the governing party done with this huge majority since 2019?
The government has ****ed it away.
The Conservatives have, so far, nothing substantial to show for this big majority.
Zilch.
And time is now running out.
It may well be that the Conservatives will not have another opportunity with such a large majority – and some Conservatives perhaps know it.
There is perhaps not enough time for the governing party to force through any controversial legislation – especially if there is opposition in the House of Lords.
But Conservative ministers will know that this is probably their last chance: to validate the the 2019 general election result, and perhaps to validate the Brexit that made that election result possible.
As the clock runs down, we can expect louder and more extreme positions to be announced – on “culture wars” and other things – notwithstanding there is almost no time to get legislation through.
There will be attempts to use (and misuse) ministerial powers and delegated legislation.
The government will be in a hurry.
For not only is the next general election at stake, but perhaps the validity of the whole enterprise of Brexit.
The next eighteen months are going to be frantic and noisy.
The more time runs out, the more frantic and noisy the government party will become.
And, if the Conservatives do lose the next general election, that frantic noise may come to be seen in retrospect as a death rattle.
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Thank you David,
One can only hope…
Best
Bryn
I thought Sunak was doing his best to avoid talking about Brexit? Sadly I doubt whether he wants to go any further than the Windsor Agreement in sorting out the problems Johnson landed us with.
Ever since Starmer became leader, the polls have only improved for Labour on those occasions when the Tory party has behaved particularly badly.
Little though I like his politics, Sunak seems a more competent leader of the Tory party than Starmer is of the Labour party. Labour’s lead is slipping – down from 20 points ahead to 12 points ahead in the last poll I read.
There are extraordinary parallels between Starmer’s and Neil Kinnock’s behaviour as party leaders (even down to choosing a number of the SAME poor performing, unpopular advisors and officials). Even the “Guardian” now seems to be questioning Starmer’s performance (much too late).
Some of us seem to have longer memories and will not have forgotten the misdeeds, misappropriation and mismanagement brought about by this disgraceful government. To compare Starmers performance against this is hollow to say the least!
I profoundly disagree.
A cliche’ in recruitment is that a good guide to a job applicant’s likely performance in your post is his / her past performance in previous jobs. There are two counts against Starmer which make me fear he’d be as dreadful a PM as Johnson and Truss were in the same job.
As head of the Crown Prosecution Service, many of us have taken on trust Starmer’s ability to lead and manage large and complex organisations (like the UK!) . I now wonder about his actual performance as head of the CPS.
A staff survey done several years into Starmer’s top management job there showed 80% staff were dissatisfied and many thought his team’s leadership incompatible with the values of the CPS.
That’s an extraordinary vote of “no confidence”. Starmer’s reactions to that dissatisfaction were in my view both feeble and misplaced. Allegedly they centred on top-down retraining courses for staff.
Everyone in HR or senior management knows you don’t “tell” mainly very bright, highly qualified staff to stop being deeply unhappy and angry about the organisation’s leadership. Good leaders try to create “safe spaces” in which the staff and management can identify and explain the problems each perceives, work together to solve them and objectively monitor and celebrate the progress in solving them.
Starmer’s conduct as leader of the Labour party frightens me. It was daft of him to re-appoint advisors and officials who performed badly and caused unproductive ructions under Kinnock’s and Blair’s regimes … and seemingly have learnt nothing since. It’s folly to lose your base (voters, grassroots support organisations and hundreds of thousands of members contributing their subs, donations and time to your cause) in pursuit of a declining group of voters temporarily disenchanted with the political parties they normally vote for but who give no signs of becoming enchanted with yours. Starmer’s apparent indifference to natural justice and tolerance of the “tactical” use of disciplinary procedures appals me.
Linda,
With respect – the next election will not be about Starmer, no matter how much you wish it would be.
Nor – fairly or unfairly – will it be about Sunak, who appears ideal Hindu son-in-law material. Sober, hardworking, bright. The problems sit all around him. Can he lock up half the cabinet for months on end during an election campaign?
It will be about the economic environment and the economic legacy of Brexit. If the economy recovers in 15 months, Sunak will get back in. Otherwise, he’s toast.
But who “leads” the organisation does have a considerable influence on how the organisation performs and what it does.
Just look at the differences between a Sunak-led government and a Johnson or a Truss-led government. Would Johnson have negotiated the Windsor Agreement which in its turn has opened up at least the possibility of the UK rejoining Horizon and having at least some involvement in game-changing European science?
I’d argue that Starmer’s influence over his own party’s prospects and performance is even stronger than Sunak’s over the Tory party. I think he’s a touchy, authoritarian, unprincipled boss with poor people and political skills, in hock to a tiny group of power-seekers who in turn are wholly dependent for their advantages on his formal authority.
There are already signs of organisational trouble due to the leadership – eg safe seats lost or only just won, extreme difficulty in finding candidates willing to contest councillor and MP seats for Labour, the loss of secure finance (membership fees and donations and affiliation fees from unions) and an increasing dependence on insecure finance from wealthy individuals and their corporates. I’d say that Labour is now very fragile because of its leadership and the choices of its leadership.
Most voters won’t know or care what’s going on within the only large opposition party the UK has. They’ll vote most likely in favour of which party riles them least and whom they most want to punish. However, I think the issue of leadership does matter and will influence (at least marginally) what happens in the run up to the next election and its result.
It was won on the PROMISE of getting Brexit’ done. They patently have not done that nor are they likely to. They are liars plain and simple. They won because ‘the Faragists and UKIP’ – having been promised that Brexit would be done – transferred their votes to the only party that might do that. Sadly they were suckered – but won’t be a 2nd time
Serious question:
How on Earth can Brexit ever « be done » as long as England sits on the European continental shelf?
Surely anybody over the age of 8 should realise this rather obvious truth?
Brexit is “done”. It may not be the Brexit that you or anyone else in the 52% wanted, but that singular event is over. The UK ceased to be a member of the European Union on 31 January 2020. In much the same way as the Irish Free State ceased to be part of the United Kingdom in 1922. The formalities are “done”.
However, there is no end of history, so now we are into the process of living together. The two sides remain close neighbours with many common and some competing interests. Like a divorce involving children, a clean break is impossible: a more distant relationship between the former partners continues whether they like it or not.
The repercussions for the ongoing practical arrangements between the UK and the EU are going to echo and reverberate – and those arrangements are going to evolve and reinvent themselves – for a long time. Just as the ongoing practical arrangements between the UK and Ireland have for over a century. Whichever party wins or loses a general election.
Death Rattle? I hope so.
Brace, brace.
‘The more time runs out, the more frantic and noisy the government party will become.’ And the less attractive it will seem to middle England. The danger is that Starmer just seems accepting of what ever the government does as he doesn’t wish to be seen opposing it too vigorously for fear of upsetting the northern seats he wants to recover, and ultimately he just seems complicit. Whilst there are those commentators who insist that when in government Starmer will prove to be alright, even radical, the less he opposes, the less likely he is to be in government. So I am not as sanguine as you about a death rattle.
Don’t forget that within the next 18 months there are presumably the results of ongoing investigations – Raab / Sunak / Johnson / COVID etc etc – they can’t magic those away.
In principle such a large majority should have given the government almost untrammelled power to enact their policies and yet they have completely failed to do in a way that would impress many a urologist (as you have observed). Constitutionally it is fascinating to see enormous power obtained and then completely wasted through internal party struggles (which in my view is probably just as well) and the unsolvable riddle of Brexit. I am sure that this will be analysed in depth over the coming years…
A good dose of FUD might be the only tool in Sunak’s box. A look at any economics blog will reveal a list of measures likely to improve the UK economy – but Tory supporters and donors will not like any of them. So plan a media campaign to paint Labour as wicked irresponsible types who will wreck the economy whilst doing one’s best to do much the same thing. Both sides know what to do but dare not do it, they know they will not get elected again.
The amusing thing is they got their lovely new Brexit, Boris unwrapped the tissue paper to great acclaim and there it was – useless. To make it work would be electoral suicide.
Occasionally I entertain thoughts of a Maoist revolution. Sweep away the entire Establishment, seize Ducal and Royal lands and start again. Very unpleasant, but the thought that sustains me is of JRM and JR and their tribe trudging barefoot across ploughed fields lugging slopping buckets of excrement day after day after day. Hey ho. Happy is he who expects little….
A masthead for the blog?
https://bid.catherinesouthon.co.uk/auctions/8541/srcat10049/lot-details/353343f2-4216-450b-8a3a-afe700c4e54b
Other Green place-names are available.
But not so many “David Allen” street names.
Here is the junction of David Allen Drive with Old Plank Road, on the edge of Jacksonville, Florida. https://goo.gl/maps/3JuyrqJzAFLVUzju6
Ha ha, thank you for that! I suspect I will never see it for myself, but it is noice to know it is there.
As they say, you are welcome. Have a nice day :)
Google has a few others – some of which appear to be so inconspicuous that I suspect they may be trap streets – but my second favourite is this one, east of Halifax, Nova Scotia, where it meets Melinda Avenue.
https://goo.gl/maps/cVi8TqNTdEobRtWd6
Dismal journalist is mainly right; the economic narrative will determine how the next General Election vote goes. If the story can be sold to 40% of the population that the economy has recovered sufficiently and the future is bright the Tories will not lose. This is the central issue that Jim2 points out; the electorate. ‘Tell them what they want to hear but don’t do it’.
So long as a significant proportion of those around us fail to engage even for one vote every five years or do turn up but vote emotionally (not using reason and evidence), the Tories can avoid disaster because the electorate are significantly influenced in a particular direction by the press in this country. Elizabeth Lambert asks us to consider what effect the ongoing investigations might have on Tory electoral prospects but pixel mud does not stick to its targets in minds unwilling to accept any uncomfortable reality; the press use this fact every day.
No matter what people who actually think, engage and understand wish would happen just ask yourself what the very worst couple of things are that these people could attempt in the next 18 months in order to hold on to power? Then expect them to make a strong tilt at making them a reality by whatever means possible. They’ve already tried to bypass parliament, they’ve already co-opted the crown, what makes you think they won’t do so again and then go some steps further to hold on to power? In their minds they are entirely justified in doing anything and everything to achieve the ‘right’ ends.
This post could be much more alarmist in tone and not be inaccurate, in my view. We might all love the next General Election to be a wholesale repudiation of anti-community, self-serving greed while the planet burns. A rebuttal of the prevailing corrosion of centuries-old institutions that have underpinned a tolerant and compassionate society utilising a mixed economic outlook. But that may well not be the case as more than half of the population actively do not support this same wish.
Thatcher’s children have never known what ‘we’re all in this together’ looks and feels like so they, probably the most abused section of society in the current accelerating bolt away from community into anomie, snatch at whatever crumbs from the table are left after inequality has done its work without sensing that the table can be regulated and they don’t need to accept this situation.