By reason of various Acts of Parliament, the parliament elected in December 2019 has to end, at its latest, by the fifth anniversary of when that parliament first sat later that month.
Theoretically the current parliament could be extended longer, like the 1935 parliament was extended and extended again until the end of the Second World War, but that would require contentious primary legislation – and the government has run out of time to force legislation through the House of Lords.
And, in any case, nobody is suggesting the government will try to seek to extend the current parliament before the end of its natural term.
So that theoretical and exceptional possibility will not happen: this parliament has less than twelve full months left, at most.
If the parliament goes on as long as possible then the next general election may be next year, in January 2025 – but that still means the current parliament is dissolved this year.
Political commentators aver that the current government will seek a general election in either May or in autumn this year.
(One pundit (I forget who) made a plausible case for the general election being on the same day as the May local elections, on the brutally realistic assumption that it will be harder for the ruling Conservative party to get its core vote out twice in a period of a few months. But we know that politicians are not rational, and so nobody knows.)
In constitutional terms this lack of time makes the government fairly impotent in respect of any fundamental legal changes.
The only primary legislation the government can be confident it can get through both Houses of Parliament will be in one of three categories: (1) finance bills, as the House of Lords cannot delay tax legislation; (2) bills legislating for express manifesto commitments from 2019; and/or (3) uncontroversial legislation.
This constitutional reality also points to a May election, as the government can be pretty sure that any tax proposals in the March budget will be quickly translated into law.
The government, of course, can propose changes that do not require primary legislation: in certain areas they can issue statutory instruments under an existing Act of Parliament; it can do certain things under the royal prerogative or existing statutory powers; it can issue statutory and non-statutory guidance; and so on.
But such changes are weak beer constitutionally compared with primary legislation – not least that each legal change (or gimmick) can be challenged in the courts in a way that primary legislation cannot be.
The parameters of our constutional arrangements therefore shape the politics of the next few months. There is not a lot a government can do controversially, of any magnitude, other than change tax law. And so no doubt that is what the government will do.
Of course, in other areas the government will threaten to do all sorts of things with non-statutory methods. And some of these threats may even have an existence beyond being briefed to the newspapers. But in respect of extinguishing any rights currently set out in primary legislation then the government has now ran out of time.
And this time next year, this parliament will not any longer even be in place.
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Spot of pedantry, David: this Parliament dissolves by automatic operation of law on the fifth anniversary of its first sitting (17th December), not the anniversary of the election (12th December).
Ah yes, I will correct this.
Cromwell has it:
“You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go.”
Failure to leave in a timely manner may lead to a Charles I scenario as the populace are heartily sick of this crony government. The sooner they leave the less damage they are likely to suffer though from this commenters standpoint destruction is too good for them.
Can we expect mines to be laid to disrupt the incoming govt? Perhaps a significant reduction in personal taxes to go with the anticipated IHT changes?
“By reason of the Parliament Acts the parliament elected in December 2019 has to end, at its latest, by the fifth anniversary of that general election.”
Um, which act, and which anniversary?
It is not the Parliament Acts (1911 and 1949). While section 7 of the former amended the Septennial Act 1715 to reduce the term of a parliament to five years from seven (itself an increase from the three years set in Meeting of Parliament Act 1694, known as the Triennial Act, echoing the name of the Triennial Act 1640, which was intended to make sure Charles I called parliament to sit at least every three years, and we know how that ended…) Under the Septennial Act, the period was counted from the date appointed in the writ of summons for the sitting parliament to first meet.
But that was repealed by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011. And that was itself repealed in 2022.
Instead, now we have section 4 of the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022, which provides for parliament to dissolve (by operation of law, we might say) “at the beginning of the day that is the fifth anniversary of the day on which it first met”. https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2022/11/section/4/enacted
That section does not mention the date of the general election.
The last general election was held on Thursday 12 December 2019, and the newly elected parliament met for the first time on Tuesday 17 December 2019. So I think the present parliament must dissolve at the latest at the beginning of Tuesday 17 December 2024. And I think 25 working days for an election campaign could take us to Monday 27 or Tuesday 28 January 2025.
In my view, Sunak would be unwise to cling to power until the last possible moment, until time runs out, and force an election campaign over the Christmas and New Year period.
Given the timing of the 2024 Budget on 6 March, already announced, an election in May seems most likely to me.
But Sunak has precious little time left to pass any meaningful legislation if the next general election is held on the same day as the next local elections, 2 May. That is four calendar months, but allowing for Easter, I think parliament would have to be dissolved on Monday 25 or Tuesday 26 March 2024, just three weeks after the budget. Allowing for a normal budget debate, there is barely time to pass a short-form Finance Act. And before then, parliament is on recesses until 8 January, and also for a week in February over half term. The clock is ticking.
Happy new year!
The “um” at the start of this comment almost resulted it being binned, with the rest unread. Comments that begging “um” and “er” are the most irksome on the internet, and I would ban them if I had absolute world power.
I should have said Acts of Parliament, and I have corrected the post accordingly.
“When a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully.”
Unfortunately the Tories seem out of any implementable ideas and whether the election is in May or November will not make much difference. So strategies to adopt may include:
1) How to screw as much money out of the expenses/redundancy/rehoming/duck house schemes as possible. A pretty disgusting sight best kept out of view lest it makes defeat worse.
2) How to poison the wells and prime the usual media with the pitfalls.
3) Cancelling inheritance tax and giving away money and promising lots and lots of goodies whilst revealing that Labour don’t have any good options either. Might possibly work.
4) Drink their way through the HoC and HoL wine cellars, so not only is there no money but no plonk either.
You left out: “What this countrty needs is another good war.” My modest donation to the Bookmakers’ Benevolent Fund is on that.
Prescient blog about how genuine issues of constitutional importance will shape 2024.
The possibility that responding to the pressure of public outrage the HoC passes a bill exonerating all caught up in the Post Office miscarriage of justice is one such issue.
While it’s almost certainly the quickest way to exonerate all caught in the maw of that scandal – and especially if the. Bill also lays out mandatory compensation to these individuals or their surviving families – such an Act blows any idea of judicial independence out of the water.
Hence Sir Keira’s reported preference for a bill setting up some sort of fully funded process whereby one or more appellate level court judges are dedicated 100% to a fast tracking of review of every individual that was prosecuted and that via this way properly in the end it’s a court of appeal ruling that exonerates all convictions as unsound.
However with Parliament having just declared that Rwanda is safe and overturning a Supreme Court ruling to do so it seems that the sovereignty of Parliament over everything including facts on the ground has gone to MP’s heads.
Not a very exciting comment by me but Oh good grief, less than a year to go to closing of one of the darkest chapters of the modern Political era. Each day will be eagerly ticked Off on our Countryside Calander (when it finally arrives).
Fingers crossed for many Portillo Moments on the horizon (although the Tories are already sadly disappointing us in the potential fun to be had on Election night)
I think we need to hold on tight for whatever the more melodramatic wing of the Tories plan to do whilst they are in power.
May this year go quick.