24th October 2022
Yesterday the former Prime Minister Boris Johnson provided a statement about not standing for the leadership of the United Kingdom’s governing Conservative Party.
I joked on Twitter that a close of reading of this statement was a joy – and I was then commanded by the highest of all temporal and spiritual authorities to do a post setting out why.
And so here it is.
*
A close reading of any text has to have regard to the (seeming) intentions of the author, the content of the text itself, and the relevant context(s).
Here we have a resignation but not a formal resignation – indeed, there was not even a prior application, formal or informal, to which this is a sequel.
It is not any form of a required text – it was instead volunteered by its author.
This means that more regard has to be made to (seeming) intention and context than otherwise, as there are no formal, required “buttons” to “press” with its content.
*
Now let us begin.
“In the last few days I have been overwhelmed by the number of people who suggested that I should once again contest the Conservative Party leadership, both among the public and among friends and colleagues in Parliament.”
See how the “I”s are buried in this sentence, so as to indicate that it is not really about him.
The references to “the number of people” and to “the public and among friends and colleagues in Parliament” is pretty much an exercise in duplication.
The author could have said more simply “In the last few days I have been overwhelmed by [encouragement] that I should once again contest the Conservative Party leadership, both among the public and among friends and colleagues in Parliament.”
But the author needs to emphasise the quantity of people, and so the double-egging of “the number of people”.
The “overwhelmed” also indicates that he is protesting too much – and, indeed, the context implies that he was instead underwhelmed.
He did not get enough support.
*
“I have been attracted because I led our party into a massive election victory less than three years ago – and I believe I am therefore uniquely placed to avert a general election now.”
The author was once a winner, and it is important that this is emphasised and that the reader is reminded.
There was not just a “election victory” but a “massive” one.
And it was not now some time ago, back in 2019, but only “less than three years ago”.
But it is the last part which is most interesting, where the author puts forward a false proposition about an imminent general election.
There is no imminent general election – and there cannot be one without the governing party wanting one.
So this is misleading.
The author then protests that he is not only well placed but “uniquely placed” to “avert” this non-existent imminent general election.
He presents himself as The One – “uniquely”.
And he uses “therefore” when he means “thereby” – a neat and deft trick to make the proposition seem stronger than one bare assertion leading from another.
*
“A general election would be a further disastrous distraction just when the Government must focus on the economic pressures faced by families across the country.”
The “further disastrous distraction” means, of course, that there was a previous “disastrous distraction” – and here he can only mean his own loss of office.
The necessary implication of seeing his own loss of office as a “disastrous distraction” is that he is not contrite about how he lost the premiership.
*
“I believe I am well placed to deliver a Conservative victory in 2024 – and tonight I can confirm that I have cleared the very high hurdle of 102 nominations, including a proposer and a seconder, and I could put my nomination in tomorrow.”
Ah, the “well placed” line – a feature of a million job application letters, where the applicant cannot think of a better way of boasting that they are fit for a vacancy.
This follows the “uniquely placed” just two sentences ago, and it is saying the pretty much same thing: his electoral prowess.
Also note the passing mention of 2024, as for when this election should be.
Then we have “tonight I can confirm that I have cleared the very high hurdle of 102 nominations”.
Not just a hurdle.
And not just a high hurdle.
But a “very high hurdle”.
And he has “cleared” this hurdle.
This is energetic imagery.
The superfluous “I can confirm” – like the “therefore” in a previous sentence – is intended to make a proposition seem stronger.
Of course, in context, this is an unimpressive proposition, as his supporters have claimed for days that he had over a hundred nominations.
He is now reduced to claiming that he has managed 102 (or perhaps more).
The detail of “including a proposer and a seconder” gives an impression of desperation.
The crescendo of this sentence is “I could put my nomination in tomorrow” is an attempt to convince the reader and perhaps also the author.
Of course he could.
*
“There is a very good chance that I would be successful in the election with Conservative Party members – and that I could indeed be back in Downing Street on Friday.”
Not just a chance.
And not just a good chance.
But “a very good chance”.
*
“But in the course of the last days I have sadly come to the conclusion that this would simply not be the right thing to do. You can’t govern effectively unless you have a united party in parliament.”
But.
Having bigged himself up as the one who is “uniquely placed” to avert an imminent general election (which will presumably now have to take place) and “well placed” to give his party a general election victory in 2024, he now says it is not actually in his party’s interests for him to avert this looming defeat and claim this brilliant victory.
It would “simply not be the right thing to do”.
Why?
Because, he says, “You can’t govern effectively unless you have a united party in parliament.”
Seemingly gone is the “overwhelming” support he has in the party from the start of the statement, and gone also is the support that enabled him to “clear” a “very high hurdle”.
The support, in fact, is not “overwhelming”.
His candidature would split the party so much that he would not be able to “govern effectively” – even though he contends he is “well placed” to govern so effectively as to achieve a general election victory in 2024.
None of this adds up.
*
“And though I have reached out to both Rishi (Sunak) and Penny (Mordaunt) – because I hoped that we could come together in the national interest – we have sadly not been able to work out a way of doing this.”
With “reached out” we switch in style from the hapless job application to irksome public relations verbiage.
The context here is that the other two contenders rebuffed him.
The framing of this sentence is to blame the other two contenders for rejecting his approach: they are the ones who are not thereby acting in the “national interest”.
He is the statesmanlike goodie, and they have let him and you down.
And you are to be “sad” at this outcome.
*
“Therefore I am afraid the best thing is that I do not allow my nomination to go forward and commit my support to whoever succeeds.”
Hello, here is “therefore” again, seeking to add gravity.
Just sentences ago he had “come to the conclusion that [becoming leader again this week] would simply not be the right thing to do”, and now – separately – he is saying he has concluded because of another reason that “the best thing is that I do not allow my nomination to go forward”.
Given he had already decided this before “reaching out” it makes no sense for him to say that the rebuff is the reason he did not “allow” his nomination to go forward.
The author wants us to believe he is both a wise statesman and the unfairly scorned reject.
He wants both the credit for not standing and for others to be blamed for him not standing.
He wants the king-making cake, and to eat it.
*
“I believe I have much to offer but I am afraid that this is simply not the right time.”
Well.
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If Rishi Sunak (or Penny Mordaunt) were stupid enough to make a deal with Johnson they’d have instantly shown themselves unfitted for the post to which they aspire.
Yet political expediency may now require that Sunak makes a deal with Johnson anyway.
The “I believe I am therefore uniquely placed to avert a general election” line is an obvious threat. An early election does not require the whole governing party’s consent – only a bloc half the size of their majority. Approximately 40 is enough, perhaps 45 if the DUP supports the government.
And Johnson had approximately 60 public nominations. More than enough to withdraw confidence. So the question is what would be his price for not attempting this?
Johnson’s let down – without fair warning – so many MPs as well as the rest of us, it’s most unlikely he COULD mount a coup of that kind, I feel. Each potential rebel must know that Johnson is too self-centred to care what happens to those depending on him and too volatile, silly and lazy to be an effective conspirator or leader.
And if Sunak does a better job of his premiership and of leading the Tory party than Truss and Johnson (quite a low bar!), then the only Tories likely to revolt would be the looniest of ideologues. We’re just too close to the next general election for most Tory MPs to risk worsening their chances of holding onto their seats.
All that is true. Still, Sunak has to either deal with him or with the individual members of that bloc in order to be truly confident of being able to govern.
I guess that’s why Braverman was brought back as Home Sec.
I’m not convinced by the “therefore” vs “thereby” quibble. The contention – which is not explicitly spelled out – is that should Sunak be elected, the public will revolt at the prospect of two successive Prime Ministerial changes with no popular electoral mandate. This public revolt would then mean that – while there is no legal requirement for another election – it would nevertheless be necessary because Sunak has no mandate to do anything.
The “therefore” follows from the fact that Boris claims such a mandate – and so he alone has the standing to tell the public that they elected him in 2019 and therefore he will wield that mandate until the end of its course.
This of course misrepresents the nature of an electoral mandate, which is granted to a party, not to its leader.
And so, while the “therefore” is indeed correct usage under Boris’ worldview, it is an interesting assertion is interesting in many ways – it speaks to how he sees power as Presidential rather than prime ministerial, how he views an electoral mandate as personal rather than based on parties an policies, and how he would wield that power and mandate if reinstated.
But why use “therefore” (or “thereby”) at all? This is not a reasoned argument: it is, at best, a self-serving thought dump.
“Why use [additional superfluous words]” and “self-serving thought dump” is quite an accurate summary of Johnson’s entire professional life.
I wish I could upvote your comment – you’re spot on.
Sorry but I firmly disagree, an election mandate is to a party and a leader and most of all to its manifesto.
Full scale deviation from the manifesto or applying it with disastrous effects since it was based on lies and delusions means a new mandate is needed from the electorate.
Both the above apply now.
A great assessment of the text – I like the way it highlights the pomposity of such a grandiose announcement of a non-event.
I suspect that I’m not the only person to think that the subtext is ‘up yours, Rishi’.
I also wonder if the references to a disunited party are a warning that Johnson himself has the power to bring about the disunity.
The penultimate paragraph
“Therefore I am afraid the best thing is that I do not allow my nomination to go forward and commit my support to whoever succeeds.”
is cakeistly ambiguous. Will he support his successor or not? As @sheepbop has pointed out, we know that Tories don’t like Oxford commas
I think in imminent GE would be more likely with Johnson actually. This could happen in a number of ways.
Some tories have actually come out and said they’d cross the floor if he came back. It’s hard to know how many, if any, would actually do this, but it certainly increases the likelihood of another hung Parliament.
Given the controversy, King Charles might decide not to invite him to form a government, thereby trading one constitutional crisis for another. This would indeed be a controversial move, but how can you call this a functioning democracy with that result? It’s past time for the electorate to choose.
I hope the next PM is at least competent. We have badly lacked leadership for many years now.
Indeed, but only if the government could find an effective way to extinguish the burning barricades that would adorn every High Street if the aspirant ‘King of the World’ shuffled back on to the Front Bench, like a disheveled, over-weight Worzel Gummidge .
Who are the voters that that yearn for a return to lies and self-serving deceits of the last year?
The best we can hope for is an individual that can add up and see beyond the next (2024) GE… How many jobs could be created / how much money could voters save if the Government invested money in Home Insulation, or even tax rebates on insulation materials, rather than £50k for their City mates?
I had thought of a lovely symmetry if he came back and broke the tory party.
But perhaps the proximate cause has passed this way already, in the guise of farage. Let’s wait and see.
Superb analysis. Yet again we have Johnson so obviously lying it’s embarrassing yet asking us to play the game with him that we know he knows he’s lying, and he knows that, but pretend we believe he’s not lying even though we know he knows we believe no such thing. Partygate all over again under the Johnson banner, Love Me, Please.
There is a definite hint of the protection racket about this statement. “You wouldn’t want anything nasty to happen to your newly repainted party unity, would you, Mr Sunak?”
As Eddie Mair so rightly pointed out, Johnson is a nasty piece of work.
Good as always.
I was fascinated by the tenses.
“I believe I am well placed” [to win an election in 2024].
Surely, given he isn’t standing, he should have written “I would have been well placed”.
Unless he believes he is still well placed…
But.
If this is not the time, when is it to be?
When Sunak fails to square the circle of recession, declining tax revenues and austerity, as fail he must?
When the British people have had their say and the Tories are reduced to opposition?
Boris would be an ideal leader of the opposition poking fun at Starmer as he once did to the EU.
The only problem is that the UK will be much reduced in the meantime, and Boris will have been the primary author of that reduction.
But.
The daily mail won’t care. There appreciation of the consequences of a history they helped to create stretches to all of three days.
They will soon find another hapless victim caught up in the maelstrom of their creation.
Well.
Get soon.
Sunak applies for re-admission to the EU.
The “Daily Mail” hails this as a stroke of genius, which it has secretly favoured all along.
What next? Ah, yes.
Sunak re-instates the 95% rate of income tax — as a purely temporary, emergency measure, you understand.
The “Daily Mail” hails this as a stroke of genius, which it has secretly favoured all along.
Sunak adopts as an English Bill the SNP’s Gender Recognition Act.
The “Daily Mail” casts doubt on his citizenship.
“Sunak applies for re-admission to the EU.
The “Daily Mail” hails this as a stroke of genius, which it has secretly favoured all along.”
Honestly, I would take that at the drop of a hat.
” when is it to be?” – 2019. Boris’s time is over. As Gandalf said, so should he: “My time is over: it is no longer my task to set things to rights, nor to help folk to do so.”. Though if you are not a fan of Brexit, you might consider Boris to be more Sauron than Gandalf.
Frightfully considerate of the artist formerly known as prime minister to interrupt his holiday, cross an ocean, wish everybody well, cross the ocean again and resume his holiday.
With flagrant disregard for his constituents!
Of course, he didn’t get the support he needed, and all this is flannel designed to distract from that.
But while denying the (unbearable) truth that he couldn’t get the support he needed to run, he’s nonetheless claiming that the ungrateful wretches will be sorry they didn’t support him. I suspect he thinks the winner is unlikely to revive the party’s electoral fortunes but that Johnson himself could. The first part may be accurate while the second is almost certainly delusional.
I also notice that he says that “the best thing” is “that I do not allow my nomination to go forward and commit my support to whoever succeeds”. But he’s only done the first half of that sentence, and says nothing about whether he will actually do the second half. I rather doubt it.
After all, he says “this is simply not the right time” which suggests that he thinks the right time will eventually come. In other words he remains permanently on manoeuvres, and will in fact offer no support at all to whoever wins.
And by saying “I do not allow my nomination to go forward”, Johnson is implying that he is selflessly holding back his supporters from sweeping him into Downing Street, rather than just saying he is no longer standing. Johnson never misses an opportunity for self-aggrandisement.
If ever there was a case for the dissolution of Public Schools and the removal of it’s product’s arrogant self-aggrandisement from government, then Boris is your poster-boy, possibly with a little help from Cameron (Remember him?).
Digested read: “Well.
What struck me was his saying not that he could have been or would have been best to win the next GE, but that he *is* the best. If that is the case then there is clearly (still) an onus to get him back in charge before that GE.
There is a third possibility – that he does have enough support, but that enough Conservative MPs have said they will not obey the whip under him, leaving him potentially a lame duck Prime Minister in exactly the same untenable position as Liz Truss was.
That said, knowing him as we do, it’s far more likely he’s simply lying about the 102 supporters.
I saw earlier on twitter (can’t remember who though) a post that added up the MPs who had announced they were supporting Sunak, Johnson’s ‘confirmed’ supporters and Mordaunt’s tally of supporters and the aggregate figure was higher than the number of Tory MPs!
He’s as lazy as he is idle.
Reads to me as the first half of a ‘going forward’ speech, then added in but “I am not”.
Reminded me muchly of the speech at the presser when he pulled out of the Tory leadership race.
“That person cannot be me”
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/30/brexit-live-theresa-may-and-boris-johnson-set-to-announce-leadership-bids
Personally I had little doubt (less than Johnson perhaps) that this was a nonsense. I think he was rolled out to provide frothy headlines for a day or two whilst the ERG put together their own candidate to succeed Truss. When Steve Baker said it can’t be Johnson – due to the simple fact that he is likely to be deselected very late in the electoral cycle and trigger a huge high profile byelection in Uxbridge – the group (never as unified as made out in some media sources) fell apart.
Perhaps Johnson’s 102 is octal 102, ie decimal 66.
Laugh-out-loud funny. Very good.
Floury adjectives mask the simple political reality, ” don’t run if you can’t win”.
Without a doubt, had he thought he could one he would have thrown his hat in. This is the only honest interpretation of “this is simply not the right time.”
That last line brought the Terminator strongly to mind.
He really is a piece of work. It amazes me that people fall for it. To me, he is the epitome of “I was just a little bit sick in my mouth” cringe.
“To me, he is the epitome of “I was just a little bit sick in my mouth” cringe.”
I wish that was the limit of my reaction to him – but no: he; what he says; what he does; everything he stands for (i.e. himself); makes me apoplectically, punch the wall, throw something at the TV, angry.
But the truth is some of that anger is probably misplaced, and should better be directed at his enablers and the people who actually believe the unending stream of ordure that emits from his mouth: his dishonesty is entirely visible and obvious, so what does it say about people who not only accept it but seemingly revel in it?
I continue in my fervent belief that Right Wing thinking and ideology are a species of mental disorder, and nothing happening around me these days does anything to disabuse me of that notion…
Let Sunak take some flak for now and make a leadership pitch in a year or so before an Election is called .
Frequent use of “ I” often belies naked ambition.
Phrases such as “we” or “the team” are more collegiate and inclusive.
One phrase that escaped your comment – “I have been attracted”.
What does that mean? Are we in danger of going down a Lord of the Rings saga again?
I have been attracted by the opportunity to throw my hat in the ring?
Have others, always unnamed, contacted him suggesting he would have a good chance if he would just hop on a plane – tourist class of course.
The opportunity to stir things up? Put the wind up Sunak, to hell with the consequences.
Is this all good fun again? Last night at 9pm was close enough.
But, sadly, he will be missed.
Great analysis as always, thanks.
One additional thought I had was the very high hurdle was a dig at the 1922 committee who’d flexed the rules to stiff him. In the same way as he was booted out within 12 months of a VONC.
Unfortunately he’ll be back I fear, not in opposition as there’s not as much money in that, he’ll have to wait a while yet.
“Unfortunately he’ll be back I fear, not in opposition as there’s not as much money in that, he’ll have to wait a while yet.”
I honestly think that after the Standards Committee is done with him, and the recall motion is played out, he’ll lose his seat and become a political irrelevance: and he’ll choose to stay there, because – after all – who can live on a politician’s income anyway?
“…who can live on a politician’s income anyway?”
A former Prime Minister, who gets £100K per annum until they die. Even that useless Truss gets it.
“A former Prime Minister, who gets £100K per annum until they die. Even that useless Truss gets it.”
I’m aware, Matt – but Johnson is on record on numerous occasions lamenting his struggle to make ends meet on what political life pays:
https://www.thenational.scot/news/19481756.boris-johnson-moans-160k-salary-cut-benefits-uks-poorest/
Before that, he complained that his Telegraph salary (well in excess of £250k a year) was a pittance too:
https://metro.co.uk/2021/07/30/boris-johnson-regularly-complains-he-cant-afford-to-do-his-job-15015430/
Context is everything. Remember who we’re talking about…
He should try intermittent fasting. He stands to lose a lot of weight and also save money on food. One stone. Two or more birds.
“Not allow my nomination to go forward”? Nice use of the passive voice to emphasise supposed greatness. How about just saying you didn’t want to throw your hat in the ring.
” I have been overwhelmed … I should once again … I have been attracted … I led our party … I believe I am therefore uniquely placed … I believe I am well placed …. I can confirm … I have cleared the very high hurdle … I could put my nomination in tomorrow. … I have sadly come to the conclusion …
* You * can’t govern effectively unless * you * have a united party in parliament.
… I have reached out … I am afraid … I do not allow … I believe I have much to offer but I am afraid that this is simply not the right time.”
There is that bump in the middle, among the I, I, I, I. * You can’t govern effectively *
And then the conclusion: this is simply not the right time for Johnson – even though he is overwhelmed with support, uniquely placed, has cleared the high hurdle, etc. – but implying that another time in the future might be.
Sunak is 42. Just as Blair was the first prime minister born after the end of the Second World War, Sunak will be the first prime minister born after Thatcher came to office, and the first from the 1980s just as Truss was the first from the 1970s: indeed, Sunak was 10 when Thatcher left office, and still a few years off starting at Winchester. Perhaps he will be able to leave behind some of the baggage from the past … but he doesn’t have much time to detoxify the poisoned chalice he has seized.
“but he doesn’t have much time to detoxify the poisoned chalice he has seized.”
He poisoned it, so I suspect he’s immune…
Isn’t he also playing the old tune of MPs v The People again by writing “You can’t govern effectively unless you have a united party in parliament.”? So in his view, the party membership is united behind him, alas these dastardly MPs…..
I really enjoyed reading this. Thank you.