*
The next general election in the United Kingdom is now less than a year away.
The latest possible date the next general election can be held is 28 January 2025.
How is this so?
Well, let this blog explain.
*
The maximum length of any parliamentary term is governed by statute.
Historically, the maximum term of a parliament has varied.
Once there was no limit. (Imagine that.)
Then there was a three year limit. (Imagine that.)
And then under the Septennial Act of 1715 the maximum length of a parliament was set at seven years. (Imagine that.)
That was then amended under the Parliament Act 1911:
The position is now governed by the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 (which repealed the fixed-term legislation you may recall):
The current parliament first met on 17 December 2019:
This means that under the 2022 legislation, the current parliament has to end by 17 December 2024.
Then under another Act, there will be a period of six days after that dissolution for nominations:
And then the poll has to take place nineteen days after that deadline:
That makes twenty-five days.
On the face of it that would mean a date in early-to-mid January 2025.
But.
We also have this provision:
As the period in question goes over the Christmas and new year period, this moves the maximum date to 28 January 2025.
This is the House of Commons’ own reckoning:
You are welcome, as the sort of people who read and comment on blogs, to see if you can reckon the date differently.
But even if you do reckon the date differently, it is unlikely to be later than 28 January 2025, and so the contention of this post stands: we are less than a year away from the next general election.
*
Of course, parliament can now dissolved by (the Crown on the advice of) the Prime Minister before the maximum length of parliament.
Perhaps the Prime Minister will go for May, or for October/November, or some other date?
Who knows?
Perhaps not even the Prime Minister.
Perhaps they may not even still be Prime Minister at the time.
*
Is there anyway the maximum period can be extended?
In theory, yes.
It is possible for a parliament to extend its own duration.
The parliament elected in 1935, for example, was extended on annual basis until the second world war had ended in Europe, and there was similar legislation in first world war:
Similar legislation could, in theory, be passed again, invoking some supposed emergency (and some of you may suspect that some government supporters would like to do so).
But even if the House of Commons was to pass such legislation, it cannot be forced through against rejection of the House of Lords as a matter of law (emphasis added):
And, in any case, there would not be enough time to force an extension through against House of Lords opposition (emphasis again added):
So this parliament could be extended, but only with the agreement of the House of Lords, and not just by the government forcing through legislation with its House of Commons majority.
*
And so less than one year to go.
The end of this parliament is in sight.
Comments Policy
This blog enjoys a high standard of comments, many of which are better and more interesting than the posts.
Comments are welcome, but they are pre-moderated and comments will not be published if irksome, or if they risk derailing the discussion.
More on the comments policy is here.
“The end of this parliament is in sight.”
Phew!
Or if one-word posts are not acceptable: Thank the Lord.
Where’s Archbishop Usher when you need him?
The world of 2024 being what it is, I can easily believe in an emergency that could require the undivided focus of the government and reasonably warrant postponing elections.
But I cannot for the life of me bring myself to the belief that the current administration could be the equal of such a crisis, rather that a prompt election is necessary before such an emergency can arise.
Once Labour is in power as seems likely, could they extend the 5 years period for automatic dissolution by amending the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 to a longer period e.g. 6 or 7 years with a simple majority or does such a change also require consent by the House of Lord like an emergency prolongation would?
Also needs agreement of the Lords.
Didn’t Churchill want to delay the 1945 election until after VJ day?
Yes, and that may have been possible had Attlee/Labour agreed.
Can’t come soon enough. My sympathy is with the next government and the mess they will have to sort out.
Although it is not law, general elections have taken place on Thursdays for a long time, meaning that this one would be on 23 January 2025 at the latest.
Sch.1 to the Representation of the People Act 1982 does not appear to be intended to be directed to Ministers, the Act is not expressed to bind the Crown, and in any case, merely requires a writ for a new election to be issued ‘as soon as practicable after the dissolution of Parliament’. Is there anything to stop a truly delinquent Government dissolving Parliament and delaying elections?
Could the government keep declaring Bank Holidays (or perhaps days of mourning/celebration) to ensure the government lived on indefinitely even if Parliament has been dissolved?
I think we should all defer to your wisdom on this with a nod and the requisite grim resolve needed to resist any coup attempts between now and then that could prove you wrong.
Over on Twitter, someone suggested that the date for the next election could be pushed back by declaring a series of bank holidays. In practical terms, that seems unlikely, and I don’t think it would really benefit the current government (since Parliament would still have to be dissolved by the same date).
As a theoretical exercise, I’m curious about whether this cunning plan would also have to go via the House of Lords. Looking online, I found this:
“Bank holidays can be changed by Royal Proclamation.”
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/bank-holidays-how-are-they-created-and-changed/
However, I can’t find out what triggers a Royal Proclamation, e.g. whether that’s part of the annual King’s Speech or whether it could be done at any time.
“Then there was a three year limit. (Imagine that.)”
Unfortunately, we don’t have to imagine that in Australia: three years is the mandated longest term for a Federal government.
Would seem so much more sensible to adopt the State & Territories’ position of four-year terms for their governments.
“The end of this parliament is in sight.”
Maybe I’m projecting, but I sense relief in these words.