Sooner or later there should be a result – even if, like four years ago, there is drama (or worse) all the way into the new year. And when there is some sort of result then there will be those who will explain why that was always the most likely result. Such is the nature of punditry.
But today, all is uncertain.
On the face of it, it would seem that Harris should win. Trump does not seem stronger than he did four years ago – or two years ago when his endorsed candidates did badly. He is also a more divisive figure than he was when he won eight years ago, and he is against a less divisive candidate.
But, we are not in times where such a rational view has much purchase. We are in a period of populism and hyper-partisanship and disinformation, of joyful cruelty and illiberal frenzy. One can too easily imagine Trump winning. Less likely things have happened in the United States and around the world in recent years.
And if so, we will have an extraordinary situation of a president with criminal sanctions and facing criminal trials using the might of his office to reduce his exposure to any proceedings.
And we will have a president who boasts of wanting to also use the might of his office against political enemies, both personal and general.
The only liberal hope would be that, again, he is too lazy to follow-through on his threats, and that the swings he takes will be on the golf course, and not from the Oval Office.
In the days, weeks and months to come, things may be clearer – though even that cannot be said with absolute certainty – but as of today, things are unclear and they are worrying.
So it seemed to be a moment worth recording, using this blogpost as a postcard.
And to adapt the wording of a postcard: I wish we weren’t here.
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For me, the thing that is more relevant is that if Trump does win, then the Republicans will almost certainly have the House and the Senate too, since the ‘down ballot’ tends to follow the Presidency (hence the fact that there is usually a swing back at the ‘midterms’). And that’s where the opportunities are. Whilst it is true that the rules mean that the Senate would be deadlocked on everything except some sort of Budget bill, and there are likely to still be some reasonable Republicans in the House (see how the current ‘majority’ has not been), legislation and admin posts, including judicial votes, will be entirely in the hands of the radical right. At that point, it almost doesn’t matter whether Trump is “compos mentis” or not; executive orders can only go so far, but legislation backed by a Supreme Court can do anything.
Whereas, of course, if the Democrats end up with the trifecta, the current Supreme Court seems absolutely intent on stopping anything that they may want to do.
“Less unlikely things have happened”
do you mean “less likely things” ? or “more unlikely things”?
Whoops, corrected.
Thank you, Mr Green. This is so well written. I find your hammer hits the nail square-on, hitting with particular force where you write, “We are in a period of populism and hyper-partisanship and disinformation, of joyful cruelty and illiberal frenzy. One can too easily imagine Trump winning. Less unlikely things have happened in the United States and around the world in recent years.” The general rule with the United States seems to be that nothing, no matter how bizarre, no matter how incapable a priori of being accepted into even a cheap and sleazy television screen play, is barred from eventual actualization.
I would like to highlight several particularly disturbing aspects of the current soap opera (“seebikas”, we say here in Estonia, “soapy thing”, “soapfest”):
* Yes, a few days ago Mr Trump really did simulate oral sex with a microphone stand. The crowd, as far as I can tell from the sound track (from C-SPAN?), is cheering him on.
* The hideous comedian comment in Madison Square Garden, comparing Puerto Rico to a “floating island of garbage”, was vetted by the campaign before the comedian spoke. Scrutinizing the scheduled speaker’s material, the campaign deleted an extreme sexual vulgarism directed at Ms Harris, but passed “floating island of garbage”.
* “Follow the money,” say the police detectives. “Oh puh-LEEZE, don’t get me STARR-did,” say people in the upscale cafeś of Seattle and Portland. Well, puh-LEEZE: (a) the Trump sneakers get hawked at https://gettrumpsneakers.com/; (b) the Trump trading cards get hawked at https://collecttrumpcards.com/; (c) the Trump Bibles get hawked at https://godblesstheusabible.com/; (d) the Trump watches, some priced at 100 000 USD , get hawked at https://gettrumpwatches.com/; (e) Trump campaign contributions in cryptocurrency get solicited at https://www.donaldjtrump.com/crypto; and (f) you can buy shares in “Trump Media & Technology Group Corp” on an American stock exchange. Regarding “(c)”, I would urge people to search Google News with the string ((SEARCH))oklahoma schools purchase order for trump bibles amended specification((/SEARCH)). Although “(f)” does not at first look too bad, we might reflect that where there is a buyer, there is also a seller; that the share price as in recent weeks gone sharply up (and then again down) without any seeming cause; that Mr Trump has since September been legally able to sell shares from his own holding in the corporation; and that this might therefore be a way of funneling well laundered, ultimately foreign, money into Mr Trump’s personal-and-yet-political pockets, without an adequate audit trail.
Some decades ago, when Charles de Gaulle visited the American west coast, he was driven out of the Los Angeles airport. On looking at the endless cookie-cutter subdivisions, he is said to have said, “This is not going to end well.”
One thing is certain. There will be an unpleasant fallout whoever wins.
Sadly, I think we are in for four more years of Trump. His foreign policy is likely to be disastrous for the rest of the world, especially regarding climate change. It could be fatal for Ukraine as an independent state.
Last time around he failed in most of his aims. He seemed to think he had absolute power. This time he might try to give that to himself. He’ll certainly pardon himself of the crimes he’s been convicted of. so much depends on how the election shapes Congress.
A vote for Trump is like a vote for Brexit. You feel a moment of joy/revenge/pride for sticking it to “the elites/system” and a lifetime of regret as the nation becomes poorer -on many levels- for it.