Explaining a 31-month sentence for a tweet

27th May 2025

How a mixture of court process, law and sentencing policy led to the lengthy imprisonment of Lucy Connolly

For some a prison sentence – or indeed any criminal sanction – for a speech act needs an explanation.

An offence for a speech act can seem different to, say, where there is tangible damage to the person or to property.

You say [x] aloud, or you type and publish [y], and you go from not having criminal liability to having criminal liability, because of the words that you used.

But there are many offences which come down to speech acts: many forms of fraud, breaches of the Official Secrets Act, planning or inciting crimes, obscene publications, terrorism offences, and various forms of threatening behaviour.

All are about just words, and all are offences.

In fact there are more criminal offences about speech acts than many realise.

There are all sorts of crimes that one commit by saying the wrong thing at the wrong time in the wrong way.

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There was media disquiet about the 31-month sentence for Lucy Connolly in respect of a tweet which was online for about three and a half hours. Some have criticised the judges for the sentence.

I have written about this case at Prospect – please click and read here.

Here I just want to add some further comments, as I have a longstanding interest in social media and criminal liability (and I was once the successful appeal solicitor in a leading case in this area).

There were three key decisions which led to this sentence – none of which were taken by any judge in this case. Indeed, these three decisions taken together left the court with little choice as to the range of sentences.

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The first decision was that of Parliament.

In 2001 the maximum sentence for relevant offence under the Public Order Act was increased from two years to seven years:

This meant that anyone convicted under the offence at the Crown Court would necessarily have a starting point for their sentence higher than before. This is a form of sentencing inflation which governments of all parties do again and again, for their regular ritual of being “tough on crime”.

And the seven year range is reflected in the sentencing guidelines:

Sentencing guidelines, to adapt Parkinson’s law, tend to expand to fill the maximum sentence available.

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The second decision was that of the Crown Prosecution Service in electing to charge Connolly under section 19 of the Public Order Act 1986:

This is quite a serious offence. The CPS could have elected to charge her under a lesser offence, such as under section 127 of the Communications Act 2003, which has a maximum sentence of six months.

But the CPS chose not do this, no doubt because of the violent disorder that happened following the tweet.

You will see that the offence charged has two elements.

First, person has to publish or distribute “written material which is threatening, abusive or insulting”. This is a question of fact.

Second, if a person has published or distributed such written material, that the person “intends thereby to stir up racial hatred, or […] having regard to all the circumstances racial hatred is likely to be stirred up thereby.”

Here we come to the intention of the person – or to the circumstances of the publication.

In this case, the CPS adopted the position that Connolly (a) published or distributed “written material which is threatening, abusive or insulting” and (b) she intended to stir up racial hatred. The CPS did not rely on “all the circumstances”. They insisted she had intent.

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The third decision was that of Lucy Connolly herself.

She decided to plead guilty.

At her appeal against sentence, her barrister said the tweet was hyperbole:

However, if this was actually the case and Connolly had intended only to vent and that she had not published anything that was “threatening, abusive or insulting” to be taken seriously, then she should have considered pleading not guilty.

But once she pleaded guilty without disputing the CPS position on intent, she necessarily admitted that (a) the words were “threatening, abusive or insulting” and that (b) she intended to stir up racial hatred.

She could have pleaded guilty but disputed intent, but if the CPS did not accept this she would have faced a “Newton Hearing” mini-trial, and if the judge went against her, she could lose any discount on sentence.

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All these decisions were made by others and not the judge at first instance or the judges on appeal.

Connolly decided to plead guilty, to a serious charge decided by the CPS, under an offence which parliament decided had a maximum sentence of seven years.

If any of these decisions had been different then there could have been a different sentence – or, if Connolly had been found not guilty, no sentence at all.

Connolly was advised that the wording of her tweet made it likely that a court would convict:

She was advised that it was likely that a jury would decide that (a) the words were “threatening, abusive or insulting” and that (b) she intended to stir up racial hatred.

Faced with that advice, she had to decide whether to plead guilty and get a discount on sentence or plead not guilty and risk a longer sentence.

As it was the Crown Court judge imposed a 42-month sentence discounted to 31 months – that is two years and seven months discounted from three and a half years.

Given that she accepted she had intent, and given the sentencing guidelines, there was little the court could have done otherwise.

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Personally I think the court could have put more weight on the practical mitigation that she took the post down herself within hours. That is something to be encouraged when otherwise offending things are published, however vile. (I don’t think the personal mitigation was relevant, for the reasons given by the court of appeal.)

But even taken this practical mitigation at its highest, it would not have much reduced the sentence.

If you think the seven year maximum sentence is too high (thereby meaning that the starting points for sentences are also high) then your complaint is with parliament.

If you think the CPS over-charged and should have gone with a lesser offence then your complaint is with the CPS.

And if you think that Connolly’s tweet was not “threatening, abusive or insulting”, and that she did not intend to stir up racial hatred, then this means you think Connolly should not have pleaded guilty to the charge brought.

For it was these three decisions, and not any decision of the court of any judge, that explain the sentence imposed on Connolly.

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10 thoughts on “Explaining a 31-month sentence for a tweet”

  1. She had published several other avowedly racist and offensive messages, some of which are cited in the Court of Appeal judgment. The criminal one was more extreme but not isolated. The judgment [https://www.bailii.org/cgi-bin/format.cgi?doc=/ew/cases/EWCA/Crim/2025/657.html&query=(connolly)] is clearly written and not long.

    As ever, thanks for your exposition!

  2. Thank you – this article was informative. Would have been to know the advice that she may have been given by her solicitor and barrister regarding the same.

    I thought, the CPS actions were in line ( probably with a nod from the government) – to act expeditiously to avoid a contagion. Think the PM mentioned the same.

  3. Is it possible, I wonder, to arrange for Nigel Farage to read and understand this excellent piece?

    No need to reply – I think we all know the answer.

  4. During the 2011 riots, we saw a lot of people charged with public order offences over social media posts, many of whom chose to plead guilty when they would have been better off challenging it. I don’t know what possesses people to give such deference to the CPS. Thankfully, Hollie Bentley did not, and her case was thrown out.

    1. In this specific case, reading the full judgement linked to above makes it pretty obviously why she would have been advised to plead guilty.

    2. This is just a guess… Asking Google’s search engine, “How much would it cost to defend a charge brought under the Public Order Act in Crown Court?”, the answer included a couple of points of note.

      First was that a decision may hinge on whether or not Legal Aid would be available to the accused – and of course we have to remember the massive cuts to legal aid entitlements that have been introduced in the last few years. The second was that costs can vary between £2,500 and £10,000, “for a few days’ representation”.

      If this is the case – with the potential worst-case scenario being that one were to make this outlay and still be found guilty – is it possible that people are accepting a guilty plea on the basis of a “reduced sentence” because they simply can’t afford to defend themselves?

      In 2023, RBC Brewin Doplhin found that 30% of people under 40 lived pay cheque to pay cheque with no savings…

      I’m not suggesting that there is direct overlap between people likely to be charged with public order offenses and those under 40 with no savings, but its probably safe to say there’s a good degree of overlap.

  5. Because we’re human and therefore fallible, we tend to produce better results when the activities we perform include checks and balances, corrective mechanisms, or quality control.

    I offer this to illuminate the relationship between laws and judgements: the former being “the rule book” and the latter being the results of their formal application.

    I find myself reviewing the outcome of this case in the context of the law and asking myself the question: “Does this judgement either stand as an example of a well-written law appropriately enforced, or as one providing helpful clarification where the black-letter law may have lacked a certain specificity.

    I find neither.

    Had the court judgement applied the sentencing guidelines as a “recommended starting point” and then factored elements such as the unilaterial removal of the challenged text, then I would be more inclined to agree with a suggestion that the law and its punishments were both considered and appropriately applied.

    Further, I don’t believe that we should consider this case in isolation with any other criminal judgement. An acid – but relevant – test of any court-imposed sanction has to be, *must* be the direct comparison of all other convictions attracting the same punishment [time in custody] and then attempting to consider the scope of their harm, the number of impacted parties, the likely cost to repair any injury suffered and ultimately, perhaps, the value of establishing a deterrant.

    The cynic in me wonders if the sentence was handed down with one eye on the inevitable reportage that would follow and the other on the ability of the appeals process to correct any perceived injustice – on the basis that the initial sentencing is likely to garner far more publicity than any subsequent correction.

    The citizen in me wonders, despairingly, how much longer we, as the collective “great unwashed” will continue to meekly believe that the endless, repetitive cycle of custodial sentences will somehow magically reduce crime.

    We have reached a point where the mantra, “tough on crime; tough on the causes of crime” has lost all meaning. But more than that, more relevant than that, such hollow words stand in direct contradiction to our lived experience. Our justice system hears cases and then simply hands down sentences, of broadly two types: a financial penalty in the form of a fine and/or a custodial sentence to deprive the convicted of their liberty for a set period of time.

    What seems to be lacking in any of this is concrete evidence that either of these punishments actually work in broad application. What is lacking is any concerted attempt to actually *understand* the causes of crime. The Prison Reform Trust reports that 44% of convicted adults re-offend within 12 months of release.

    What other activity do we undertake as a society in which a 44% failure rate would be considered acceptable?

    I happen to think that the specifics of this case are indicative of injustice served. But I also happen to think the problem we face is significantly larger. And thornier.

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