28th September 2021
Over at the Financial Times today there is an outstanding piece of journalism (again) by Sarah O’Connor.
In this article she explains why temporary/emergency migration schemes can be misconceived:
‘But it’s not always that simple. It is common for migrant workers to borrow money to pay for visas, transport and recruitment fees, which makes them vulnerable to exploitation. In addition, unlike under the EU’s free movement of labour, they are usually tied to a specific employer or recruiter which makes it hard for them to leave if they are treated poorly. As a result, the schemes can exacerbate poor pay and conditions in some sectors and calcify employers’ dependence on migrants.
‘One study by the US Economic Policy Institute concluded: “We cannot point to one historical example in which a temporary labour shortage has been remedied with a temporary labour migration programme, and then employers returned to hiring local workers.”
‘A favourite aphorism of migration experts is that there is nothing so permanent as a temporary migration programme.”
The article should be read in full here.
And then, setting out other examples, she avers:
‘None of this was inevitable. If the government had really wanted to improve the quality of jobs in the food and transport sectors, it could have done so regardless of Brexit.’
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And on Twitter, another insightful commentator Dr Anna Jerzewska set out the following thread:
Plenty of "we all knew Brexit was going to be a disaster" tweets in my feed.
A reminder that it's not necessarily this simple.
Yes, it was always going to be economically damaging but it did not have to be this bad.
/1
— Dr Anna Jerzewska (@AnnaJerzewska) September 27, 2021
There are the short and long-term economic effects of Brexit which were inevitable.
E.g. it's now more difficult and more expensive to trade with the EU.
But then there is also bad project management.
/3
— Dr Anna Jerzewska (@AnnaJerzewska) September 27, 2021
And yes, we also had the pandemic and other factors contributing to the "perfect storm". But the pandemic has been going on for quite a while now and we all remember where we were the same time last year – crying out for more guidance
/5
— Dr Anna Jerzewska (@AnnaJerzewska) September 27, 2021
Remember that? How last-minute everything was?
Said it before and will say it again, this is not how you deliver a project to make it a success.
And when the industry speaks out you don't treat them as a nuisance and work with them.
/end
— Dr Anna Jerzewska (@AnnaJerzewska) September 27, 2021
And today Jerzewska correctly comments on O’Connor’s piece:
And again. Brexit is one issue. But if we blame everything on Brexit we're forgetting that the Gov had years to prepare for the type of Brexit they were pursuing. https://t.co/NRdT23UDOi
— Dr Anna Jerzewska (@AnnaJerzewska) September 28, 2021
*
There are purists who will say that any Brexit would be bad, for there was no way the process of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union could have gone well.
To an extent, the purists are correct: there was no way such a fundamental shift to settled commercial, policy and legal relations could go uniformly well.
But.
There is no reason why Brexit had to be done this botched way.
And this is not just the captaincy of hindsight.
(For example, in 2017 I set out some practical suggestions for how Brexit could be done better.)
Yet for political reasons, Brexit was done in a rush and with no planning or real thought (that is, with no real policy) as to what post-Brexit arrangements should be put in place.
And it is this policy failure – literally, the failure to have a policy – which is, alongside Brexit and Covid, the cause of so many of the current discontents and disruptions.
What Brexit is revealing and exposing are the policy failures of successive government, and especially recent governments.
Like discovered checks in chess, things have moved that show deep vulnerabilities that had hitherto been hidden.
And because the post-Brexit government is not serious about policy, and has no grasp of dealing with complex situations, we get expediency and bluster instead.
*
Perhaps – like a policy equivalent to a market adjustment – a new group of politicians will now emerge to supply the policy seriousness that is now demanded.
This would be like how in many wars, new worldly commanders come to the fore to replace the clumsy peacetime generals who make the initial mistakes.
Perhaps.
But unless we soon have a generation of politicians that have the measure of the practical problems facing the United Kingdom then there can only be more chaos and crisis-management, instead of planning, thought and policy.
Brace brace.
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