7th February 2022
Today is the anniversary of the Maastricht treaty:
And so I tweeted the following:
https://twitter.com/davidallengreen/status/1490611449621884932
Being Twitter, the consequence of such a tweet was, of course, that I was told that the proposition was wrong – and that something else was the start of the road to Brexit.
(Click on that tweet to see those alternative views.)
But this post sets out, in brief, why I think that the proposition is sound.
Why the road to Brexit began at Maastricht.
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Let us go back to “1992”.
No, not the actual year.
But the once-pervasive campaign to get people ready for the completion of the single market.
It was to the date by which the integration put forward by the Single European Act was to be finally in pace.
As far as I can recall there was little political opposition to “1992” in the years leading up to that date.
Indeed the single market was a thing proudly promoted by Margaret Thatcher and practically implemented by another Conservative politician, the European Community commissioner Arthur Cockfield.
But.
Before we ever got to either “1992” or, indeed, 1992, there was already another determined push towards European integration.
This push was what resulted in the European Union – which replaced the European Community – at the treaty of Maastricht.
This movement has a quality different to “1992”.
In the United Kingdom – and elsewhere – this push was contested.
There was little of the general consensus with which “1992” was accepted and promoted.
Indeed, the passage of the legislation in the United Kingdom under John Major was politically controversial.
There is a direct line between the Maastricht rebels of the early 1990s and the post-2015 Brexit movement.
(I know this, as I was research assistant to one Maastricht rebel MP who also was a MP who voted in favour of Brexit.)
Maastricht created an organised reaction that – in my recollection and view, as someone there at the time – had simply not been there before with “1992”.
And the reaction, in turn, of those in favour of integration was, in my view, also polarising.
There was a range of ‘pro-European’ clichés – about not missing trains or not being at top tables, and so on – that did nothing to make a substantive or positive case for integration.
The Maastricht treaty also (purportedly) expanded the ‘competencies’ of the European institutions into areas such as justice and home affairs, and foreign and defence matters, which has not immediately obvious connection with the single market.
And in respect of these competencies, the United Kingdom government (and some other member states) then got into the habit of picking a choosing what areas to opt in or out of.
This half-hearted approach also can be seen in the opt-out from the Eurozone – membership of which many insisted was essential for participating in the single market.
(Though, even now in 2022, not all the countries in the single market are part of the Eurozone.)
So not only did Maastricht create the modern European Union it also enabled the semi-detached policy approach of the United Kingdom and the organised political opposition to further integration – both of which were significant after 2015 for Brexit.
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My recollection is that at the time I thought United Kingdom membership of the European Union was not sustainable.
I did not think the United Kingdom would ever go full-heartedly into accepting European Union competencies outside the single market, or that the United Kingdom would accept the single currency as being essential for being part of the single market.
I also did not think the approach of ‘pro-Europeans’ would ever win over those who developed their criticisms of the European Union in the Maastricht debates.
My view was (and is) that it would be better – and far more sustainable – for the United Kingdom to have an association agreement with the European Union.
After the early 1990s my views mellowed – and it seemed by 2015 that any departure would not be worth the time and energy.
That a cost-benefit analysis of Brexit would show more costs than benefits.
Others did not – and they kept pushing and pushing until they got a referendum and a departure.
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Had things stayed with a “1992” single market in a steady state, Brexit would have been more unlikely.
Of course, there was never going to be such a steady state – the belief in an ‘ever closer union’ was still then a thing.
It is not now really a thing, ironically, as there has not been a major European Union treaty since Lisbon in 2009 – and it looks like there will never be another one.
Indeed, the United Kingdom departed the European Union just as the belief in an ‘ever closer union’ ceased to have any actual political force.
All this said, there was no inevitability that there would one day be Brexit – just as there is no inevitability about the destination of any path.
Had things gone differently in 2015-16, it is conceivable that the United Kingdom would still be a member of the European Union – though the populism of Farage and others would still be pushing for an effect.
But if the path to Brexit can be said to have started anywhere, I think it was Maastricht.
So that is my view, as someone who followed both Maastricht and Brexit closely.
What do you think?
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