11th October 2021
You will remember from Mary Poppins the character of Admiral Boom.
In the first Poppins book of 1934 the admiral is introduced early, almost as the first absurd or magical element of the story:
‘…Mr Banks popped his head out of the window and looked down the Lane to Admiral Boom’s house at the corner.
‘This was the grandest house in the Lane, and the Lane was very proud of it because it was built exactly like a ship.
‘There was a flagstaff in the garden, and on the roof was a gilt weathercock shaped like a telescope.’
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Given the problems of the United Kingdom government in procuring a post-Brexit trade flagship, perhaps building one in a garden, with a flagstaff, is not as absurd or magical in 2021 as it would have been to readers in 1934.
But in the book there is no time gun.
The cannon was devised for the 1964 film:
And as you will remember, the firing of the cannon is regular and loud and a cause of few moments’ inconvenience.
But ultimately the cannon fire is inconsequential: the vases and the pictures are put back as before, and the characters carry on as before.
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Admiral Boom is now, it seems, in charge of Brexit policy.
On a regular basis – usually at the weekend for the excitement of the Sunday press – there is an explosion.
Article 16 of the Northern Irish protocol will be triggered, or something.
There is then a sudden flurry of a frenzy, but soon the political actors carry on as before.
This is not to say that Article 16 will not get triggered – the United Kingdom government has done stranger things during Brexit.
And it is not to say that – under cover of Article 16 – a deal could not be done by the European Union and the United Kingdom – for realpolitik can take many forms.
But it is to say these regular threats of triggering Article 16 are being regarded as only as loud and momentarily inconvenient as the firing of Admiral Boom’s cannon.
Either Article 16 should be triggered or it should not be, but the performative politics of regularly threatening to do so should be avoided.
Article 16 is intended for urgent situations – but this long run up indicates a lack of urgency.
(And Article 16 does not say what those currently wanting to trigger it thinks it says, as this blog has previously averred.)
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The current Brexit minister David Frost – who is the one usually saying that Article 16 will be triggered – is not in a credible position.
Here are his tweets from when the agreement was signed.
‘excellent deal with the EU’
I'm very pleased and proud to have led a great UK team to secure today's excellent deal with the EU.
Both sides worked tirelessly day after day in challenging conditions to get the biggest & broadest trade deal in the world, in record time.
Thank you all who made it happen.
— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) December 24, 2020
‘the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice ends’
It also restores Britain's sovereignty in full. EU law ceases to apply; the jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice ends; there is no alignment with EU rules; and our Parliament sets all laws for our country once again.
— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) December 24, 2020
‘a fully independent country once again’
Our country begins a new journey as a fully independent country once again on 1 January. Our future and our prosperity are in our hands. I am confident we will thrive and succeed.
— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) December 24, 2020
The current news is that Frost is citing the (very limited) role of the European Court of Justice in the protocol as the basis for ‘a significant change’.
2. We await proposals from @MarosSefcovic. We will look at them seriously & positively whatever they say. We will discuss them seriously and intensively.
But there needs to be significant change to the current situation if there is to be a positive outcome.
— David Frost (@DavidGHFrost) October 9, 2021
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So we have the preposterous negotiation of Frost against Frost.
The Frost of 2020 who not only trumpeted the Brexit deal in general but that it ended the role of European Court of Justice in particular against the Frost of 2021 who now says the role of that court is fundamentally important.
And somehow in this negotiation both Frosts are losing.
Both were/are wrong.
The Frost of 2020 did not want to admit the small continuing role of the European Court of Justice.
The Frost of 2021 does not want to admit that the small continuing role of the European Court of Justice is of almost no practical importance.
The European Court of Justice is a sham issue – it is a contrived, bad faith attempt to find something – anything – to open up the protocol.
As an exercise in misdirection, it is up there with the Chewbacca defense:
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The current politics of the United Kingdom have a surreal quality – where things are better illustrated by references to Mary Poppins and South Park than by citing precedents from political history.
We have a Brexit agreement negotiated and celebrated as ‘excellent’ by the same minister who now says it is so flawed that it needs to be re-negotiated.
Like the (literally) ship-shape house introduced at the beginning of Mary Poppins, what should seem very odd has very soon become very normal.
Yet, as the attorney in South Park avers in another context, ‘it does not make sense.’
And the key to understanding so much of current law and policy of United Kingdom is that it does not make sense, but it is happening anyway.
Brace, brace.
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