Spiteful governments and simple contract law, a weak threatening letter, and a warning of a regulatory battle ahead

13th January 2025

Some things from last week you may have missed.

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The weekly constitutional

Last week I expected my blogging to centre around a post I was preparing for Prospect, where my regular contribution is to branded as ‘weekly constitutional’.

This pleasing badge implies a weekly meander – but it will be one based on a recent (or non-recent) published case report. The aim is to use that judgment or other decision to show how law and action work – and do not work – in practice.

The first ‘weekly constitutional was about a significant United Kingdom Supreme Court decision that was handed down in November but which got almost no press attention (the main honourable exception was in the estimable Byline Times).

In the unanimous decision the Supreme Court justices undid a grossly spiteful attack by the then coalition government on public sector trades unions not by resorting to elaborate employment law provisions, but by applying a contract law rule so simple it is the stuff of the first weeks of any law degree.

I liked doing that post – please read it here – and I hope you will follow the ‘weekly constitutional’ post. I will post here and alert you to them, perhaps expanding on certain points.

But that post got rather drowned by the attention received by two other things that I wrote last week.

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‘Lettuce before Action’

I so wish I had thought of the above line, but it was coined by the peerless Paul Magrath, whose weekly law email is a must-read – you can subscribe here.

This is about, of course, the antics of a former Prime Minister – and indeed a former Lord High Chancellor – in sending a legal letter to the current Prime Minister.

A letter so weak it may well be the weakest threatening letter ever sent by a United Kingdom law firm.

The ‘close reading’ post I did – here – was done very quickly and promptly, and indeed so promptly that I even had to set out why as a matter of copyright and confidentiality I was entitled to publish the letter so as to comment on it.

Since the publication, the former Prime Minister has been widely ridiculed for this misfired missive – but I think there may be something more worth saying about the letter – and so I may do a post with further reflections.

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Back in the salmon pink

Last week I was also invited to write something about about social media regulation for the Financial Times.

It is always lovely to write for what – in my biased but honest opinion – is the best newspaper, though it is always terrifyingly daunting to be published alongside proper commentators.

(Lucy Kellaway is my all-time favourite columnist in any newspaper anywhere.)

So I wrote one thing, about the inherent difficulties about regulating social media – some of which will be familiar to long-term readers here.

And is often the case, new ideas come out once you actually start something, and so I wrote a second thing about what I say as the rational drivers behind what Meta announced last week. This was based on actually listening carefully to what Mark Zuckerberg has said in his broadcast – and then reading that prepared statement even more carefully (which led to the all-important satisfying “Aha!” moment).

The two pieces were then banged into one longer piece with an overall, hopefully coherent structure.

And the resulting ‘essay’ was published in the print edition and online on Saturday.

For reasons of topicality, more than the quality of the writing, the piece became very popular.

The Bluesky stats for the article matched my Brexit posts on Twitter at the height of Brexit when I had five times as many followers.

The piece was even briefly one of the top five read FT.com pieces globally.

The sensation of this happening is not altogether pleasant.

But perhaps the one merit of the piece was that it offered an explanation for something which seemed otherwise hard to explain in rational terms.

Essentially the argument offered by the piece was:

(a) Meta has an interest in switching to a more confrontational approach with irksome foreign regulators, especially in the European Union,

(b) Meta now has an opportunity to do this because of the reelection of Donald Trump to the United States presidency,

but (c) this does not show strength but weakness, for in those foreign jurisdictions, the platforms know the respective state has the ultimate power of legal recognition.

And so this is why Meta now needs a strategic ally in the US government – and everything else follows from that.

This seemed obvious from Zuckerberg’s statement – but because it was slipped in a point number six after five rather attention-grabbing other points, but did not get the attention it should have had.

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Litigation and regulatory strategies are fascinating – in particular, where the surface theatrics of impulsiveness, hypocrisy and recklessness misdirect onlookers into thinking the underlying commercial (or political) objectives are similarly irrational.

Even Liz Truss’s letter makes sense – but solely from a political-media perspective, and not any legal perspective.

Perhaps I should write that further piece on that letter, if only to use that ‘Lettuce before Action’ line as a title.

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A close look at Truss’s legal threat to Starmer – a glorious but seemingly hopeless cease-and-desist letter

9th January 2025

How the lore of New Year defeated the law of New Year – how the English state gave up on insisting the new year started on 25 March

New Year’s Day 2025

By the mid 1700s in England there was a curious juxtaposition between the lore of New Year’s Day and the law of New Year’s Day.

The legal system, the government, the established church, and business: all insisted that the year began on 25 March – Lady Day.

That would be the date on which, say, 1748 would become 1749.

This sort-of-made-sense for many reasons.

It would make the month beginning with ‘Sept’ the seventh month, and the month beginning with ‘Oct’ the eighth month, and so on.

It also meant that years began in spring, rather than in midwinter (bleak or otherwise).

It accorded with the conventions of business and legal transactions – and even today 25 March is one of the quarter days on which certain debts become due.

(Also at this time, Acts of Parliament and other legal instruments were usually dated by regnal years anyway.)

And it even fitted with the Christian year, for the feast of Annunciation was a good time to get spiritual things going for a new circuit of the sun, with Christmas then neatly coming nine months later.

Linguistically, legally, administratively, commercially, spiritually – everything pointed to 25 March being the start of the year.

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But.

There was a problem.

And the problem was that people ignored what they were supposed to think, and carried on celebrating the new year on 1 January anyway, as they had done since time immemorial.

Even within the court and the corporations – as Ronald Hutton details in his great book The Stations of the Sun – they privately celebrated the new year on 1 January.

There was thereby a tension – indeed a contradiction – between the lore of new year and the law of new year.

This, in turn, had practical problems.

As A. F. Pollard explains in this informative 1940 paper, wills and other legal instruments affecting normal people often had date errors, because what people believed to be the new year contrasted with the official position.

(It also meant problems in respect of dealing with Scotland which had sensibly moved to a 1 January start date back in 1600.)

It did not matter what the church and parliament and the crown and the courts said, people persisted in acting as if the year changed on 1 January.

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And so in 1750 the church and parliament and the crown and the courts gave up.

An Act of Parliament was passed switching the start of the year to 1 January:

The Act had this wonderful preamble:

“Whereas the legal Supputation of the Year of our Lord in that Part of Great Britain called England, according to which the Year beginneth on the 25th Day of March, hath been found by Experience to be attended with divers Inconveniencies, not only as it differs from the Usage of neighbouring Nations, but also from the legal Method of Computation in that Part of Great Britain called Scotland, and from the common Usage throughout the whole Kingdom, and thereby frequent Mistakes are occasioned in the Dates of Deeds, and other Writings, and Disputes arise therefrom […]”

This was also the Act which switched the English calendar to the Gregorian calendar, omitting the days from 2 September to 14 September 1752.

(See what you can do with Acts of Parliament. Just as powerful on matters timey wimey as any Doctor Who scriptwriter.)

Lore had prevailed over law: what people believed and practically understood to the case forced the official position to yield.

Law can only conflict with lore for so long.

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Happy new year to all the followers of this blog, and thank you for your support.

Some of President Carter’s judges can still judge, 44 years later – and so we can see how long Trump’s new nominees will be on the bench

New year’s eve, 2024

The former US President Jimmy Carter, who has just died, left office in January 1981 – just under 44 years ago.

Yet one of his many bench nominees was still actively serving as a federal judge as recently as 2021:

And that list also indicates that about 29 of those judges – while not on active service – have the semi-retired “senior status” and so can still serve as judges if required.

This shows the significant lingering power of every US President on the shape of the judiciary.

A 100 year-old president former president has died who left office over 40 years ago, and yet his appointments can still decide cases.

Bringing this around to today: the newly re-elected Donald Trump and the Republican Senate will be appointing a raft of young conservative judges to the judicial benches, in addition to those which were appointed during his first term.

And some of these will still be judging (or able to judge) in 40 or 50 years – long after many of you reading this post may be here.

The lingering effect of the two Trumpite moments will last for political generations. Some appointed judges may see out ten or more presidential terms and still be judging.

And judicial time limits are now more unlikely than ever: Trump and the Republican senators have no interest whatsoever in limiting the enduring power of their nominees. And presumably as and when (or if) the Democrats ever regain power, they will have no interest in limiting the terms of their appointees.

This is a practical effect of how what some say (or hope) may only be short-term political surges can have consequences that will last decades.

(See also: Brexit.)

We are not dealing only with the politics of the here and now, but about the law and government of the hereafter.

Perhaps things will one day get better for liberals and progressives.

Perhaps.

But it is going to be a long haul.

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Happy new year to the readers of this blog.

Thank you for your ongoing support.

There is going to be a lot to write about in the new year – and I am also going to explore the law and policy of AI, following my Candlemas story.

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Comments are welcome, but they are pre-moderated and comments will not be published if irksome, or if they risk derailing the discussion.

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“Twelfth Night Till Candlemas” – the story of a forty-year book-quest and of its remarkable ending

The day before the Winter Solstice, 2024

An argument about Assisting Dying – matters of life and death need to be properly regulated by law, and not by official discretion

28 November 2024

The illiberalism yet to come: two things not to do, and one thing to do – suggestions on how to avoid mental and emotional exhaustion

The new Republican presidency-congress in the United States as well as developments in other countries mean that in addition to the illiberalism we have had so far, there is more – perhaps worse – to come.

So how should liberals respond?

Here are three suggestions, humbly put forward.

1. Do not respond, if you can, to catastrophism. You are going to think how bad things can be, and will project this on to the other side. You will then react to what your mind has conjured up. Even if those projections are plausible, this will exhaust you quickly. You will have little energy or focus left for what they do come up with.

2. Do not respond, if you can, to what the illiberals say they will do. They will goad you and frighten you, as they enjoy “owning the libs”. They like the sound it makes, the reactions they can get. Again, even if these threats are plausible, reacting to each bare threat will exhaust you quickly. You will again have little energy or focus left for what they do come up with.

3. Respond, if you can, to what they actually do – not what you fear they will do, or even what they say they will do. What they actually will do will be bad enough, and will need your energy and focus. The illiberals will hope – and expect – that all the noise and fears under (1) and (2) will mean that by the time they do put measures forward, they will have little opposition.

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As Margo Channing in All About Eve said, we are are in for a bumpy ride.

We don’t need to make it even bumpier for ourselves.

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Comments Policy

This blog enjoys a high standard of comments, many of which are better and more interesting than the posts.

Comments are welcome, but they are pre-moderated and comments will not be published if irksome, or if they risk derailing the discussion.

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New stories for old – making sense of a political-constitutional rupture

14th November 2024

The shapes of things to come – some thoughts and speculations on the possibilities of what can happen next

8th November 2024

The working assumption of many in reaction to the re-election of Trump as President is that he will serve a full term.

And that is the most likely outcome, as that is what presidents tend to do once elected: they serve out their term.

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But there are other possible outcomes.

Some outcomes are morbid, and they are possibilities for any president, especially for one advanced in years.

And there is the possibility he may step down mid-term – or be replaced mid-term.

If Trump stands down mid-term, the new President Vance could pardon him for all and any federal crimes (though not state crimes). This would meet one of Trump’s presumed objectives for having re-run for President.

And if the timing of the replacement is done just right then a President Vance has the prospect of up to (but not quite) ten years in office: here the Twenty-second amendment to the US constitution provides:

Section 1. No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once. […]”

If the replacement is done on the day after the second anniversary of the start of the term, then there would seem nothing to prevent a President Vance from then running for election and then re-election as President.

[Edit – in other terms: (2 years minus one day) plus 4 years plus 4 years.]

It can also be noted that in a way Trump has done his job for his backers in getting re-elected and, accordingly, there is nothing more he can personally do for them which another friendly occupant of the Oval Office cannot also do. If their objective is dominance over the medium- to long-term then they will be already thinking about the approach to the 2028 election.

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And if there are doubts (real or otherwise) about the cognitive alertness of President Trump there is also the Twenty-fifth Amendment, where a President can be effectively removed against their will, on declaration of the (well) Vice-President and others.

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On the other hand, a President Trump serving a full term may suit his backers just fine.

Trump is not a President to personally drive legislation through Congress – he is not a Lyndon Johnson or a Franklin Roosevelt.

But with a Republican Senate he does not need to do so: they can drive through the legislation themselves, subject to the final composition of the House of Representatives.

What a lazy president enables is for those around him to dominate the judicial nominations and discretionary powers.

So we can expect a raft of conservative nominations for the judicial benches – and for Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito to stand down and be replaced by 40 or 50 year-old strong conservatives, nominated by Trump and approved by the Senate. That will secure the Supreme Court for the conservatives for at least another twenty years, if not more.

And we can expect a huge amount of Executive Orders and such like, which in turn will be upheld by conservative judges – for who needs congressional legislation when you can have the combination of executive rule-making and nod-along judges?

Those around Trump will not be the inexperienced incoming staffers of the 2017 presidency, but people who know what to do and how to do it, many with hard experience of the first Trump presidency.

They will know what to do so as to fit things around a golf-playing president.

Trump himself may not be busy, but those around him will be.

Brace, brace.

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Comments are welcome, but they are pre-moderated and comments will not be published if irksome, or if they risk derailing the discussion.

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A postcard from the day after an election: capturing a further political-constitutional moment

6th November 2024

Yesterday things were unclear, and today things are all too clear.

Yesterday it looked as if Harris could win. On the evidence available to someone watching from England, there seemed no great enthusiasm for Trump either at his flagging under-attended rallies or elsewhere. There seemed no reason to believe he would do better than four years ago (or two years ago with his endorsed candidates).

But against that view was a sense of apprehension, if not doom. For, as this blog also averred, one could also too easily imagine Trump winning. Not because one could point to ‘factors’ (as a certain type of historian would put it), but just because he could – especially in this age of extreme political volatility.

And he has.

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One trick of the human mind is to place shape and form onto events which at the time were uncertain, and so those who were themselves unclear as to what was about to happen tend to deftly switch to being very clear about what went wrong – and who was to blame.

From the perspective of this liberal constitutionalist blog the only points that seem worth making at this stage is about how the electoral system (at least in the United States but also elsewhere) is inefficient in certain respects.

Viz:

A candidate was a liar, known to be a liar and could easily be shown to be liar – but people voted for that candidate anyway.

A candidate was a convicted fraudster – but people voted for that candidate anyway.

A candidate was by any meaningful definition an insurrectionist – but people voted for that candidate anyway.

And a candidate was in the views of some serious people a fascist – but people voted for that candidate anyway.

This means that there is no point, in and of itself, showing a candidate to be a liar, fraudster, insurrectionist and/or a fascist if people do not actually care if that candidate is a liar, fraudster, insurrectionist and/or a fascist.

And so if the outputs of a media-political system of accountability – such as that offered by the lengthy US presidential campaign – do not gain purchase or traction, then the question is what is the purpose of a system of accountability.

The view that once a candidate is shown to be [X] then that would be enough for voters to not support that candidate falls apart when voters, knowing the candidate is [X], do not care.

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What is the solution to this problem?

Perhaps there is no solution. As a Victorian politician once said to an earnest colleague: do you really believe there are solutions to political problems?

(One day I will track down that quotation.)

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But a step towards a solution is to understand the nature of the problem.

The old media-political model of accountability – the Woodward and Bernstein model, if you will – is not working when you have a shameless candidate clapped and cheered by nod-along supporters.

And it is not a problem that is going to go away.

Yes, Trump is exceptionally charismatic – it is difficult to image a DeSantis or a Vance carrying a campaign like Trump. As such it is tempting to see him as a one-off and to just wait for him to go and for normality to return.

But there will be other Trumps, especially as the old gatekeepers in political parties and mainstream media fall away, and as illiberals become more adept at exploiting mass social media.

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The one book which seems pertinent to all this originated in (of all years) 1984.

This was Neil Postman’s Amusing Ourselves to Death – a book which should be better known.

His son wrote this brilliant short essay about that book and Trump in 2017, a lot which still stands today.

His son said:

“I wish I could tell you that, for all his prescience, my father also supplied a solution. He did not. He saw his job as identifying a serious, under-addressed problem, then asking a set of important questions about the problem. He knew it would be hard to find an easy answer to the damages wrought by “technopoly”. It was a systemic problem, one baked as much into our individual psyches as into our culture.”

His son then put forward some possible solutions. You may think of others. I cannot think of any.

How do you have accountability when people care not for the accounts that they are given?

When people know they are being lied to, but do not care?

I have no idea.

The only conclusion I have is that it is time for a good cup of tea.

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Comments Policy

This blog enjoys a high standard of comments, many of which are better and more interesting than the posts.

Comments are welcome, but they are pre-moderated and comments will not be published if irksome, or if they risk derailing the discussion.

More on the comments policy is here.