What Elon Musk perhaps gets wrong about civil wars being ‘inevitable’ – It is in the nature of civil wars that they are not often predictable

7th August 2024

On the site that is still known as Twitter, Elon Musk has again tweeted that ‘civil war is inevitable’.

The thing is that civil wars are rarely inevitable – at least not in the short- to medium-term.

This is because civil wars occur, almost by definition, where there is some kind of pre-existing polity which has broken down.

This is what makes them ‘civil wars’ as opposed to any other form of human conflict.

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A polity often has two key features.

The first feature is a means of regulating disputes – political, legal, social, religious disputes, and so on.

The second feature is a means of enforcing order – usually a form of legitimised coercive power.

It is only when a polity fails to resolve a dispute and then does not enforce order that there risks being a civil war.

The presence of perceived contradictions within a given society is not sufficient: a ruler or ruling class can be quite adept at keeping power despite significant domestic discontent.

Some polities – from tyrannies to loose confederations – can exist when with stark differences between those who are governed.

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In the longer term, there may be a case for a ‘civil war’ being inevitable.

Most political systems will break down eventually, after a century or two.

In what is now Great Britain and Ireland there have been various civil conflicts on and off for hundreds of years.

If Musk waits long enough then there may again be a civil war one day.

But one suspects that is not what he means.

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What is often meant by those who say civil conflict is inevitable is that they normatively think that civil conflict should be inevitable.

That they believe there should be a civil conflict on socio-economic or ethnic or religious or some other lines within a given polity.

But, to adapt Karl Marx, ‘the history of all hitherto existing society is the history of those in power often staying in power to the frustration of those who want to have a revolution’.

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Civil wars are rarely inevitable.

And civil wars deliberately brought about and signalled in advance are rarer still.

If the polity fails to resolve the underlying disputes in a given society – including by the means of effecting fundamental constitutional or socio-economic changes or by granting autonomy or independence to a certain part of the polity – then there is the additional hurdle of the state being normally in a strong starting position to enforce and maintain order.

To say that one thinks normatively there should be a civil war is not the same as saying positively that there will be one.

Yes, every polity is capable of collapsing, and a civil war is thereby always a possibility.

But they are often not predictable when they do happen.

And they then only seem inevitable in hindsight.

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How the criminal justice system deals with a riot

5th August 2024

Thirteen years ago, I went along to the south London shopping centre expecting to report on a riot. But there was not a riot.

The Lucy Letby case: some thoughts and observations: what should happen when a defence does not put in their own expert evidence (for good reason or bad)?

26th July 2024

Often the criminal cases that feature prominently in the news are really not interesting from a legal(istic) perspective.

One could quite happily commentate on interesting legal issues and never engage with a case which has been on the front pages.

And one could follow ‘true crime’ stories and never come across an interesting legal issue.

There is usually not much of an overlap: ‘true crime’ and earnest, plodding legal commentary normally do not have that much in common.

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The Lucy Letby case has been prominent in the news now for some time.

She has been convicted of multiple murders and attempted murders.

But is there anything in her case which is of wider interest – or of concern – in respect of the legal system?

Is there an issue here about the process of criminal justice?

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Some people maintain she must be innocent; and some people insist she must be guilty; and there are many websites and social media posts setting out both of these positions.

This blogpost is not one of them.

I do not know if she is guilty or innocent. That is a matter for a jury – or an appeal court.

She may be a serial killer, or she may be a victim of a miscarriage of justice; that is for others to decide.

But there is, I think, an issue here of potential wider concern.

This may be a rare example of a front page ‘true crime’ story which also raises an important issue about the legal system.

And that issue is about the role of prosecution expert evidence in an adversarial criminal trial when the defence elects not to put in their own expert evidence (for good reason or bad).

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Lucy Letby was convicted, in part, on the basis of expert evidence.

The case against her was not entirely based on expert evidence; there was other evidence put before the jury.

But, on any view, it was an expert evidence heavy prosecution.

And that is not unusual – or wrong: there are many criminal prosecutions which depend on expert evidence.

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In our adversarial system, what often happens in a jury trial when there is reliance by the prosecution on expert evidence is that there is also expert evidence put forward by the defence.

In principle, the expert owes their duty to the court – and not to the party who has instructed him or her.

In practice, of course, the prosecution will put forward expert evidence that supports their case, and the defence puts forward expert evidence which supports their case; the experts are then examined and cross-examined by lawyers; the judge sums up; and the jury then weighs the evidence of the experts in its deliberations.

This system is not perfect, and indeed no litigation process is perfect; but it generally works.

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But what happens when the defence, for some reason, does not put in their own expert evidence?

The prosecution expert evidence will still be examined and cross-examined by lawyers – and the judge will still sum up, and the jury will still deliberate.

But the questions of the lawyers – especially the cross-examination – are not themselves evidence.

The only expert evidence is that put in by the prosecution.

The jury do not get to compare and contrast the expert evidence of the prosecution and the defence; the judge gets only to sum up the expert evidence of the prosecution.

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In the first Lucy Letby trial, for some reason, there was no expert evidence put in by the defence.

We do not know that reason.

What we do know is that the defence team continued to act for her on appeal and so it would seem that their client is not dissatisfied with the conduct of the defence. This would indicate that there was, at least for their client, a good reason for not putting in expert evidence, else – presumably – she would have instructed new counsel for the appeal.

If so, could there be a good reason?

Yes, indeed there could be more than one good reason – though this is supposition, for we do not know the reason.

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One possible good reason for there not being expert evidence put in by the defence has been identified by the experienced criminal barrister Adam King in a strong piece setting out why there may be a miscarriage of justice in this case:

“One reason the defence might have chosen not to call Dr Hall (and I am speculating here) is if they felt they had so thoroughly undermined Dr Evans that they were better off leaving it at that. That would be a big tactical call, but covering your own back is not always consistent with protecting your client’s interests.

“So, for example: if your own expert would contradict much, but not all, of the Crown’s expert’s conclusions, and you believe the credibility of the Crown’s expert has been totally destroyed, you might judge it prudent not to put your own expert in the witness box. Avoiding the potential for future criticism and hindsight regret by putting your client in what you believe will be a worse position — by calling your own expert — is not a boss move. This is all speculation, but I guarantee that careful thought went into the decision not to call Dr Hall. None of this, though, would mean the conviction is safe.”

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Another possible reason not to call expert evidence is that your client’s case is that the relevant area of knowledge is such that no actual expertise is possible. This may be because of the lack of reliable data, or because it is a novel or developing area.

If so, calling an expert on that point would contradict that position.

We do know that Letby’s defence lawyers put in a detailed submission at the end of the prosecution case in the first trial that the prosecution had shown no case to answer and that prosecution expert evidence should be ruled inadmissible. It may have been that calling expert evidence would have undermined the prospects of what may have been a successful application.

We don’t know.

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In essence, the decision not to call expert evidence may have been a perfectly legitimate one for Letby and her lawyers to make in the circumstances of her case.

And one should remember – and this is a crucial point – it is for the prosecution to make out their case.

It is for the Crown to prove their case to the criminal standard of proof, and not for the defence to disprove it.

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But.

While it may have been in the interests of Letby and her lawyers not to put in expert evidence, this has the knock-on effect of there being no expert evidence from the defence for the jury to consider.

That prosecution expert evidence may be subject to robust cross-examination – but the questions of the barrister are not evidence, and the jury have to decide the case on the basis of the evidence.

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At this point, many legal folk and others would say that the fault here is with Letby and her lawyers. The defence had the opportunity to put in their own expert evidence, and they did not do so. And that the convictions were the consequence.

But it may be that response avoids a key issue.

It is for the prosecution to prove their case, and not for the defence to disprove it.

It is thereby for the prosecution to ensure that the expert evidence on which it seeks to rely is as sound as possible.

The prosecution cannot shrug off this responsibility and say that it can be cured by the defence expert witnesses.

And there is concern that the prosecution expert evidence in the Letby case was not sound to begin with.

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If that concern about the prosecution expert evidence is well-based – and this is a legal blog and not a medical or science blog, and so like many of you I have no idea – then the question is what, if anything, can and should the legal system do about it – especially when the defence (for good reason or bad) do not put their own expert evidence in.

Here there are rules on what experts can and cannot do and say, and on what their duties are to the court; here there are also rules on the admissibility of expert evidence; and there will also be cross-examination of the expert by defence lawyers.

There are safeguards.

But.

The key safeguard against poor prosecution expert evidence in our adversarial system is that the defence can put in their own expert evidence for the jury to weigh against it.

But when the defence do not do that (for good reason or bad) then there is perhaps a system failure of the adversarial system.

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Here one can (again) say that is the fault of Letby and her lawyers.

But even taking that (fair) point at its highest, there is a potential wider problem.

A lot depends on the soundness of the Letby conviction.

Indeed there is an important public inquiry which is predicated on the basis of the convictions being sound:

If, as some insist, the prosecution expert evidence in the Letby case was unsound, then any inquiry based on that expert evidence being sound will have challenges.

“MD” in the current edition of Private Eye sets out the implications:

“…[the] Thirwall public inquiry may inadvertently be derailed by experts who say under oath that Letby wasn’t stopped sooner because there were far more plausible reasons for the deaths than murder.”

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The cases involving Roy Meadow show that we should always be alert to the problems of expert evidence.

If – and it is an if – the prosecution expert evidence in the Letby case was unsound, then there is a hard question of what else the criminal justice system could/should have done when a defence does not put their own expert evidence.

Given her decision not to put in expert evidence, is it the case that she had the fairest trial possible in the circumstances?

Or is there something else the criminal justice system could/should have done in this case – and similar cases?

It may be that there is a lacuna here – and not one which is easy, or even possible, to address in our adversarial system.

In essence: what can a criminal court do in respect of unsound expert evidence when the defence elects (for good reason or bad) not to put in their own expert evidence?

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Comments are welcome, but they are pre-moderated and comments will not be published if irksome, or if they risk derailing the discussion.

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And out the other side? The possible return of serious people doing serious things in law and policy

10th July 2024

There is a sub-genre of fantasy literature which can be called the “portal” story.

Here someone goes through a portal into a world similar to but also profoundly different from our own.

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Since around 2015 we have in the United Kingdom been on our own political portal (mis)adventure.

We have collectively gone through the wardrobe, over the rainbow, down the rabbit hole, and past the second star on the right.

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But now we may be emerging from our disconcerting expedition.

Over at the department of culture, the new secretary of state announces the end of the “culture wars”.

Obviously such a unilateral declaration of maturity and sanity can only have so much purchase. There is a great deal of what may be called the media-political complex which is wedded to various divisive talking points, especially given falling circulations and memberships. But for ministers to be moving on from such relentless infantilism is a start.

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And in the province of law and policy – the staple of this blog – there seems to be a significant change.

Across the Ministry of Justice and the law officers’ department there have been impressive appointments.

We have a heavyweight KC as Attorney-General – the government’s chief legal adviser.

His deputy, the Solicitor-General, is an experienced and highly regarded environmental and planning lawyer, which suggests that it may not only be activists who will be taking a strategic view of what can be done with the law.

And there is the refreshing appointment of James Timpson as Prisons Minister.

On the face of it, these look like serious people capable of doing serious things.

If so, this would be marked contrast to the antics of various law officers and justice ministers over the last few years, from banning books in prisons to tweeting during live police investigations, and from performative dud legislation to leaking government legal advice.

Fortunately for the rest of us, the former governing party, now reduced to a rump barmy army in opposition, are embarking on their own awfully big adventure – and their screaming and hysterics should become fainter and fainter as their asteroid hurtles from the orbit of power for a while.

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One cannot be certain that things back on Earth will change, and so it is important not to get ahead of ourselves: the new ministers may disappoint us just as their predecessors did – even if the disappointments will be of a different kind.

But that said, it is going to be strange to comment on a Ministry of Justice and the law officers when they are taking their tasks seriously.

To adapt the words of the eminent jurist Dorothy Gale:

“Toto, I’ve a feeling we’re not in Oz anymore.”

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Comments are welcome, but they are pre-moderated and comments will not be published if irksome, or if they risk derailing the discussion.

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What if a parliamentary candidate did not exist? The latest odd constitutional law question which nobody has really thought of asking before

What would be the legal position if a parliamentary candidate did not exist?

A non-existent candidate, yesterday.

This question is posed because of concerns currently expressed as to whether Reform Party candidates actually existed or not.

In this internet age, there will be suspicions that a person does not actually exist if they have no social media or other online presence. This sad fact probably tells us more about this internet age than it does about any (wise) person who has kept themselves offline.

A dishonestly presented fictional candidate would be such an extraordinary event at a general election that there must be a better explanation than it having happened. On this basis, this post makes no allegations of wrongdoing in any way. Instead, this post is for the public understanding of law.

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However, such fictional candidates are not without precedent.

One tweeter unearthed this example from 2017:

The BBC news report indicates that the defendant was convicted not of any offence under election law, but under the general fraud offence of using a false instrument with intent:

Another tweeter, however, has pointed out that there is a corresponding offence under section 65A(1)(a) of the Representation of the People Act 1983:

This provides that it is a corrupt practice if a person causes or permits to be included in a document delivered or otherwise furnished to a returning officer a statement of the name or home address of a candidate at the election which he knows to be false in any particular.

A person providing a name and address of somebody who does not exist would presumably be caught by this offence.

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The one “person” who cannot be prosecuted, of course, is the fictional candidate.

This is because they do not exist.

This is not just an amusing point, for much of the Representation of the People Act (understandably) presupposes the candidate does actually exist as a person. For example, here is the power for an election to be voided for general corruption:

Would this section (and other similar sections) still apply if there was not actually “any person” for the purpose of that clause?

The determination of that question would be an interesting judgment to read.

Would the lack of a person as a candidate be the basis for any election to be voided? If so, how? And, in what circumstances?

The wording of various provisions of the 1983 Act may have to have (non-existent) words implied in to them (“purposeful interpretation” as it is called) so as to deal with such a (non-existent) candidate.

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Another interesting point is that it seems that proof of identity for a candidate may be now practically at a lower threshold than for an elector.

Here is the Electoral Commission guidance for returning officers (hat-tip):

That footnote “2” in turn refers to a couple of cases.

Of the first case from 1977, Westlaw tells us that it is authority that where there is nothing on the face of the nomination paper to raise a doubt as to the identity of the nominee, a returning officer is not entitled to investigate the authenticity of the name appearing thereon before deciding whether to accept or reject it.

(The second case, from 1975, turns more on the wording of the sub-rules of a local government statute.)

If this 1977 case is authority for the general position stated by the commission then it does seem a remarkable discrepancy that a voter has to prove their identity whilst a candidate does not.

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The above post is based on research overnight, and on the help of other tweeters (which I gratefully acknowledge), as this simply is not part of my general constitutional law knowledge. It is not a question I have ever considered before.

As such, it would be wonderful if you would supplement (or correct) the above, if you have expertise in this area.

And, if you can, you do not need to prove your identity.

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This blog enjoys a high standard of comments, many of which are better and more interesting than the posts.

Comments are welcome, but they are pre-moderated and comments will not be published if irksome, or if they risk derailing the discussion.

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The task before James Timpson: the significance of this welcome appointment – and two of the obstacles that he needs to overcome

8th July 2024

The appointment of James Timpson as prisons minister is welcome – indeed it is the most welcome appointment to this position that any sensible person can imagine.

But there are a couple of serious obstacles that he will need to overcome.

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Before those two obstacles are described, however, let us remind ourselves of the Tale of Two Timpsons, for it perhaps tells us something significant about what is now our governing party.

When Edward Timpson – the younger brother of James – was selected as a candidate by the Connservative Party in 2008, this was the infantile response of the Labour Party:

Edward Timpson himself referred to this dreadful, crass campaign in an interview in May this year when he announced he was standing down from parliament:

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So one thing the appointment this week maybe signifies is that the now governing party is rather more politically mature.

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And the appointment also signifies a more mature approach to prisons policy.

(We can only hope that one day there is a similarly mature appointment in respect of drugs policy.)

James Timpson has an outstanding record in respect of rehabilitation of offenders, both at his Timpson business and otherwise.

He is, for example, chair of the Prison Reform Trust:

A post he wrote on appointment is worth reading here.

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“We’re addicted to sentencing, we’re addicted to punishment,” he has said more recently.

“So many of the people in prison in my view shouldn’t be there. A lot should but a lot shouldn’t, and they’re there for far too long.”

This is therefore a sensible and enlightened appointment which deserves hearty applause.

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But.

Timpson has (at least) two obstacles in his new position – and it cannot be certain that he can overcome them.

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The first obstacle is that the track record of business people appointed as ministers indicates that they tend not to be successful as politicians.

There was John Davies under then Prime Minister Edward Heath, and he was not a conspicuous success.

There was David Young under then Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher who, despite been adept at telling her what she wanted to hear (“Other people bring me problems; David brings me solutions,” she is quoted as saying), was otherwise not a conspicuous success.

There was Archie Norman under then Leader of the Opposition William Hague, and he was not a conspicuous success (“I was the first FTSE-100 chairman to sit in the House of Commons and I will almost certainly be the last,” he said afterwards).

And there was Digby Jones under then Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who was also not a conspicuous success.

One reason for none of these business people being successful as politicians is that being good at business does not automatically mean that one will be good at politics.

Being good at politics requires specific skills – and there is no particular reason why a business person will have those skills.

That said, James Timpson is more than just a good businessman, he is a committed and knowledgable prison reformer – and this may make the difference where other business people have failed as front bench politicians.

But the reason this really matters in this instance is because of the second obstacle.

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The second obstacle to James Timpson being successful as prisons minister is the structurally and politically weak position of being a mere minister of state in the Ministry of Justice – both against the Treasury and in respect of the news media.

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Since 2005 prisons have been under the Ministry of Justice, having been moved over from the Home Office.

To an extent this was a good thing, for the less power the Home Office has over anything, the better.

But it was also a bad thing, for the it turned the Ministry of Justice from what was the old Lord Chancellor’s Department into a “spending” department.

And not only a spending department, but a small spending department – the worst of both possible worlds.

Part of the problem the Ministry of Justice has had since 2005 – under all administrations – is its weak position vis-a-vis the Treasury.

At least the Home Office had some departmental heft and a senior cabinet presence in its battles for public money; the Ministry of Justice almost has none.

And Timpson will not even be head of this department – the Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice is Shabana Mahmood (another welcome appointment).

Mahmood in turn will be fighting for money for the courts system and legal aid, as well as for probation and prisons. This puts Timpson further back in the queue for public money – to the extent any changes he wants to bring about requires investment.

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And it will not only be the Treasury that will be need to be won over.

The right-of-centre news media is still wedded to the notion that prison works. They are, to use a phrase, “addicted to sentencing…addicted to punishment”.

It will take only one unfortunate incident of something done by an early released prisoner, and there will be a news-media fire storm.

Such a prospect would be daunting for even a seasoned politician saying prison works.

Those with long memories will recall how prisons failures engulfed David Waddington, one of the biggest hangers-and-floggers ever to be Home Secretary:

When prisons and probation things go wrong they are easy copy for time-poor news media. The screaming headlines will write themselves.

It is one thing to have warm applause and general goodwill on appointment, it is another thing when there is a horrific story on the front pages.

Being a prisons minister who believes in prisons working is hard enough.

Being a prisons minister who wants to achieve fundamental yet enlightened change is far harder.

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So the task now before James Timpson is immense: to quickly become an effective Whitehall and Westminster politician so as to bring about a change in policy direction, in the faces of both a parsimonious Treasury and potential outright news-media hostility.

He has to bring about fundamental change to Whitehall’s long-settled prisons policy – one of the most difficult ‘asks’ in politics.

Yes, it is a brilliant, heartening appointment.

And if anyone can do it, James Timpson can. But it will not be easy.

One can only wish him good fortune.

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Comments Policy

This blog enjoys a high standard of comments, many of which are better and more interesting than the posts.

Comments are welcome, but they are pre-moderated and comments will not be published if irksome, or if they risk derailing the discussion.

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How the Met police may be erring in its political insider betting investigation – and why we should be wary of extending “misconduct of public office” to parliamentary matters, even in nod-along cases

28 June 2024

What you need to know about commercial regulation, in the sports sector and elsewhere – for there is compliance and there is “compliance”

25th June 2024

Seven changes for a better constitution? Some interesting proposals from some good people.

24th June 2024

In the Times today there is a letter published from various good sorts putting forward seven practical and easy-to-make steps for a better constitution.

One of the signatories, David Anderson, helpfully posted the letter on Twitter:

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Of course, changes to form and structure can only take us so far. The biggest problem of recent years has been an underlying lack of constitutionalism from government ministers (cheered and clapped by their political supporters). And until attitudes change, then rules will always be gamed or ignored and discretions abused.

But, there has to be a start somewhere to repair the damage, and these are interesting proposals.

The suggestions appear to be:

  • independent enforcement of a new ministerial code;

  • establishing new systems for managing conflicts of interest;
  • ditto, for lobbying;
  • improving regulation of post-government employment;
  • ensuring appointments to the Lords are only made on merit;
  • ensuring other public appointments are rigorous and transparent; and
  • strengthening the independence of the honours system, including by ending prime ministerial patronage.

The worthies aver that legislation is not necessary for most of these changes but a short bill would create the necessary powers and embed the independence of the ethics and integrity system.

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Some may say that these proposals are a little “apple pie” – but they would be a move in the right direction, the least that can be done.

Words like “ensuring” and “strengthening” are easy to type – and they are almost as easy to put at the start of a sterling bullet point.

But what is the actual check on misuse? Who in practice will have the power and authority to say “No” to a trespass by a minister of the crown (or by a former minister of the crown)?

The robustness of any regulatory system is not so much in the rules being themselves commendable, but in the rigorous enforcement of those rules and in the ready and realistic availability of sanctions for breach.

In a word: there needs to be tension.

And in our constitutional arrangements, as they stand, only parliament and the courts – rather than third party agencies – have the strength and the legitimacy to check the executive on an ongoing basis, and so for each of these seven laudable aims, one question is how they can be enforced against the government’s will by other strong and permanent elements of the state.

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Comments Policy

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Comments are welcome, but they are pre-moderated and comments will not be published if irksome, or if they risk derailing the discussion.

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The wrong gong

22nd June 2024

In my post earlier today on Lord Etherton I confused the Knight Grand Cross of the Most Distinguished Order of St Michael and St George for the Knight Grand Cross of the Order of the British Empire.

I got the gong wrong, and I apologise.