17th December 2021
North Shropshire is about as Brexity and un-woke a place as you can imagine.
(Older readers will note that its member of parliament was once John Biffen.)
At the last general election – only two years ago – 35,444 voters in North Shropshire voted for the governing party candidate, Owen Paterson.
Yesterday, in the by-election caused by Paterson’s resignation, only 12,032 voters did so.
That is – on balance – 23,412 people who decided to not to vote again for the governing party in just two years.
(Of course, there are deaths and new voters – but there will not be that much churn in just two years.)
Two years ago, the pro-EU Liberal Democrat party could only get 5,643 people to vote for them in North Shropshire – and they did not even get into second place.
Yesterday in the by-election, an additional 12,314 voters did so.
I put these numbers in terms of actual voters as – for me – percentages and swings always seem a bit abstract (though, of course, they are important).
I am more interested in the numbers of actual people making actual voting decisions.
The effect of this shift is that a governing party majority of 22,949 (and of 29,801 over the then third-place Liberal Democrats) has flipped to a Liberal Democrat majority of 5,925).
That is one hell of a shift in actual people making actual voting decisions – especially in a place like North Shropshire.
And such a shift must be significant.
But significant of what? What is being signified?
Here, any commentator has to be careful.
It is the easiest thing in the world for a commentator who did not predict a thing to then confidently explain the meaning of that thing once it has happened.
What I aver the result signifies primarily is that the ‘spell’ of Brexit may be ended – or close to an end.
By which I mean that, even in places like North Shropshire it is not enough for the governing party – and its political and media supporters – to incant ‘get Brexit done’ so as to protect and promote their electoral position.
It just isn’t working any more.
It did not mobilise the – on balance – 23,412 former governing party voters of 2019 who did not vote the same way again in 2021.
And it did not dissuade the – again on balance – additional 12,314 who voted for the Liberal Democrats who did not do so in 2019.
Of course, there were other issues – some local, some national.
Some may point to the Christmas party scandal, or to the coronavirus restrictions.
Some may even say that the by-election can be seen as a referendum on ‘lawyers from Birmingham’ – though that may be harsh.
“a lawyer from Birmingham”
There is nothing worse https://t.co/CbmvVSsmQC
— dag (@davidallengreen) December 11, 2021
Lads, the referendum on “lawyers from Birmingham” did not go well.
— dag (@davidallengreen) December 17, 2021
*
Almost everyone with political opinions will find that emerging events – including unexpected ones – will affirm the political opinions they already hold.
But whatever the other things that the by-election may signify to you and to others – the one thing that can be said is that in one of the most Brexity parts of the countries, twenty-three thousand people did not vote again for the party that ‘got Brexit done’.
And twelve thousand people voted for the least Brexity party who did not do so last time.
If the hyper-partisan spell of Brexit was still hard and fast then that would not and could not have happened.
And so, to that extent, the spell of Brexit is broken.
******
This daily law and policy blog needs your help to continue for another year – for the benefit of you and other readers.
Each free-to-read post takes time and opportunity cost.
This law and policy blog provides a daily post commenting on and contextualising topical law and policy matters.
If you value this free-to-read and independent legal and policy commentary – both for the you and for the benefit of others – please do support through the Paypal box above, or become a Patreon subscriber.
*****
You can also have each post sent by email by filling in the subscription box above (on an internet browser) or on a pulldown list (on mobile).
******
Comments Policy
This blog enjoys a high standard of comments, many of which are better and more interesting than the posts.
Comments are welcome, but they are pre-moderated.
Comments will not be published if irksome.
Likewise, I’m always skeptical about the kinds of self-serving snap political analysis we’ve seen from all sides this morning. It was a secret ballot and not only do we not know who voted for whom, but we have even less idea what was going through their minds as they voted.
It may be that subsequent opinion polls (either nationwide or in the constituency) might cast some light on that. Even if they do, it is quite unlikely that any single reason was the decisive one. Far more likely is that the matter was “overdetermined” – i.e. that the change was down a whole bunch of issues, none of them individually sufficient to sway people’s minds. It will not be possible to identify the single straw that broke the camel’s back.
As a non-Tory and somebody utterly repulsed by what has happened to that party since Cameron, and the fiasco it makes of governing, this morning has left me feeling elated.
I am not sure (yet) that what you refer to as “the spell of Brexit” is broken; although I would argue that the supposed love affair with it was always totally misrepresented. I see Brexit as a perfect storm produced by lying cynics, a lazy press, a (largely) ill-informed electorate and the desire to give “Dave” a good kicking, free of any consequences (oopps!). Johnson’s victory was less about “getting Brexit done” or “levelling up” (since he still has no clue what that means, so how could the electorate?), but more about a revulsion for what the electorate perceived a Corbynist government would represent (under any more paletable, more reasonable leader of the opposition, Brexit would have been avoided in the first place via a confirmatory referendum). If this wan’t so, Brexit euphoria (! – ye Gods!!) in 2017 would have seen May get the majority government that she went to the polls for, rather than having to bribe the DUP to keep her administration alive.
I think the spell is yet to be broken because the economic harm of Brexit has been masked by the pandemic and by Bojo’s back-sliding on fully implementing the “world beating”, “great and fantastic” deal that he got. It will not be possible to maintain the smokescreen if this parliament runs to its term and at that point, even the most deluded Brexiteer will see that they have been had.
Yes, the spell may not be entirely broken but the “mirror crack’d” definitely in the Lady of Shallot sense rather than Agatha Christie. This morning on the World Service Professor Curtice calculated the swing at 34%, the second largest swing defeat for the Tories since Christchurch in 1993. I would concur that it is likely to have been a concatenation of events, rather than any single or group of events. It might be noted that North Shropshire is very rural and the farming community was misled into voting for Brexit, against their interests. I think the rural communities are beginning to see that the wool was pulled over their eyes. Exporters of artisan agricultural food products such as cheese have been particularly hard hit. But most of all, people do not like being lied to, not by their own MP nor their PM.
A lesson for all those who confidently say that the UK will not be rejoining the EU.
Were they predicting North Shropshire turning LibDem even a few months ago? That’s the problem with predictions. They are all about the future, the place where things happen that you don’t expect.
Rejoin, or perhaps more likely something like it, could happen much sooner than is presently realised.
The breaking of the spell of Brexit is the precondition which has now been met.
The end of the Brexit spell goes both ways – there is no real prospect of us rejoining for at least a generation
Wholeheartedly agree that it will be at least a generation and it might be just England, the rump of what is left of the UK and hopefully in a “better frame of mind” and a more realistic understanding of its place in the world.
I don’t see why this should be so. If the UK asks to rejoin (or, more plausibly in the short term, benefit from the customs union and single market via either the EEA/EFTA accords or bilateral (bespoke!) agreements), it is likely to be welcome for economic reasons. Tusk, Juncker and Verhofstadt all made it clear that they wanted the UK at the heart of Europe. It is likely that a saner administration could finesse some form of membership quickly. Once that has happened, it is a logical step to seek a voice in EU affairs by rejoining. In essence, the European States know that the Brexit referendum was a Tory Party political stunt that spectacularly backfired and that the populist administration of Bojo will eventually be consigned to history just as Trump has been in the USA. Indeed, the world has been very receptive of the Biden administration and has not harped on about the mistreatment and “America first” bollocks of the its predecessor.
The EU is stronger for having the UK at its heart and Britain is learning (those of us that ever needed to, that is) that the UK is much more a force to be reckoned with when it stands alongside its “European friends and partners”. Now, whether Labour would go into the next election (as a potential stand alone government) on a ticket of rejoining the EU is another thing, but it is entirely likely that the SNP, Plaid, the Greens and the LibDems will. The European Movement is already actively campaigning to have the UK rejoin – the case for standing aside cannot be made if “the will of the people” has changed (as indicated by all substantial polling since July 2017).
Well I don’t think the EU would have us back for quite a long time anyway, and not until our Europhobic elements have become a minor part of the body politic. But nonetheless I cling to the hope that there will be a gradual movement towards closer alignment if and when we manage to get shot of the present regime.
Without polling of a representative sample of those who voted yesterday in North Shropshire, we are not well placed to say whether or not the downsides of Brexit are being tangibly felt, specifically the growing labour and skill shortages caused by the UK’s demographic time bomb that was mostly defused by Freedom of Movement.
However, rotting crops in the fields of North Shropshire and fewer migrant farmworkers spending their wages in the shops, bars and restaurants of the constituency will surely not have gone unnoticed by some voters?
According to the Liberal Democrats, they won over in Chesham and Amersham, One Nation Conservatives who do not like Boris Johnson’s character or lack of it; Remain supporting Tories and small business folk not impressed with Johnson’s two word manifesto for business.
And we have the growing number of Leave voters for whom this is not their Brexit or at least not the one for which Boris Johnson urged them to vote.
One by election victory for an opposition party does not a General Election defeat for the Government make, but two … might be feared as a snowball gaining momentum.
With the possibility of the Conservative Party losing its overall majority.
Slightly worried at the how much of the swing is explained by pro-Brexit voters being lured by a party issuing louder pro-virus signals.
I gather polling suggests how you voted in a referendum in June 2016, assuming you were eligible to vote then, is not much of a guide to your opinion in December 2021 on the most effective measures to combat Covid 19.
How I wish that were true. I fear, however, that the penny has still not dropped. More likely, this was just an anti-Boris protest vote
Agree that the Bexit bubble is rapidly bursting. Only the pandemic has kept it floating for so long.
However, I would live to know what induced 12,000 voter to still vote Tory, despite the previous, current (and I am sure) future scandals and corruption surrounding this so-called government.
What could be their justification?
I live in the constituency and I generally agree with David here. The numbers of voters who chose differently is the only thing we know. My personal predictions were totally wrong, but in hindsight the votes do follow a trend in the local elections that I took part in earlier in the year.
The reasons individuals changed from doing one thing to doing another will be many and varied. And just looking at a map will reveal that North Shropshire is not a uniform block that can be thought of as a common mind – for example, the dominance of the Green Party in Oswestry Town Council.
For each voter, there will be a specific reason. But the cumulative effect of whatever individual aspect that may have been in the mind of former conservative-minded voters – say a dislike of the way the Prime Minister conducts his politics, or the handling of the Patterson affair, or the way some farmers realise this Brexit is not helping them, or a disdain for all the shenanigans in Downing Street – do all tend to point to a failure of leadership and policy at the top.
Personally, I think it was the badgers that moved the goalposts.
Incorrect use of ‘aver’ when correct term would be ‘opine’.
I aver you are taking ‘aver’ too seriously
You are talking through your averse.
Alas, methinks, not all has returned to normal, for one has yet to hear the raucous cries of the mid term blues both across the land and on all media.
Amusing so far as it goes but will it mean much. Is there a credible challenger who would feel their efforts would lead them anywhere. We can identify a few challengers but even the dimmest can see the job is not worth the candle. Because UK plc seems in a difficult place, neither Brexit nor Covid is going away, next year looks to have many unattractive features lined up and the run up to 2024 might be quite tricky.
I would be inclined to let Boris stew in his own juice for a bit. Ruin his health and reputation a bit more. His minders might then seek to replace him with a new shiny model say mid 2023. By which time Covid may be on its way out – or not but Brexit will still be with us. Even this new shiny model will not have an easy ride I think. The problems and root causes that led to Brexit are still here and the problems of an (over) mature western semi democracy will not have changed. The way forward looks just as difficult as it always was and Boris has not laid down any new foundations.
Brexit has, we’re told, been delivered. It might be argued that this by-election therefore had nothing to do with Brexit and it certainly didn’t seem to feature in the campaign, as DAG implies.
It is, though, a lot to do with Brexit, since none of the (Conservative) protagonists would be where they are today without Brexit.
Johnson certainly wouldn’t be PM. Paterson would not have been worthy of the lengths to which the Conservative Party went to save his corrupt skin had he not been a longstanding Brexit trooper (or trouper, ymmv). Without the forces Brexit unleashed, it seems unlikely that he would have been emboldened to indulge in the corruption that he did.
The reason it isn’t enough to incant “Brexit got done” is because the population at large is realising that the deal that BJ sold them is deeply flawed (Polling from NatCen, referred to here: https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/politics/leavers-increasingly-unimpressed-by-johnsons-brexit-deal-poll-shows-305190/ – of people on both sides of that debate – shows no-one is happy).
So, in essence, we are left with the unfinished and seemingly unending Conservative psychodrama over Europe, still being replayed in a never-ending loop, but with a code of silence around it because it cannot (yet) be spoken of.
This psychodrama was – as some might say – irksome pre-2016, but since then has become wearisome and ever-louder, combined as it is with an assault on the institutions of State on which (I, for one, thought) much of our post-war social contract was founded, as a distraction tactic from the fundamental flaws in government policy.
It remains interesting to me that this was The Times front page just 3 months ago after endorsing Johnson and his party in the 2019 election (along with most of the rest of the print media) : –
https://www.tomorrowspapers.co.uk/times-front-page-2021-09-11/
And it is also interesting that today the same Johnson who pretty much went through that 2019 election campaign without having to break a sweat in terms of accountability (and when things did get a little warm for him he took refuge in a fridge) is now blaming the media for his and his party’s current predicament.
As has been the case for along time, the Conservative party get to play politics on easy mode for the vast majority of the time, whenever even a basic level of scrutiny is applied to them this is the result. It’s not Brexit that has changed, we’re just now in one of those rare moments where the Tory’s are getting little of the medicine Labour and the rest generally receive most of the time. It will soon pass when the current leader is replaced with the person in a suit they approve of.
They voted for the least Brexity party precisely because with a few T’s to cross and a few I’s to dot, Brexit (in their opinion) is done. They were therefore free to vote anyway they wanted. A great many red wall voters turned blue at the last election to ‘get Brexit done’ but it’s done now, they can vote for whichever party they choose knowing that at least in the case of the Labour Party, Brexit will never be re-opened. That is what ought to worry Boris. There is of course, no such certainty regarding the Liberal Democrats.
But there are still many true believers: I just wish that I knew in what: whether in Brexit, or the system must somehow change, coal is fine, we want our jobs back. From some ladies on last weekend’s any questions arguing BJ was doing a fine job, to some mates firing back hoax or Brexit memes and (sort-of jokes). They think they are right and do not want to change their minds.
The west is split between those with or without education. Even if they eventually despise BJ, the gillets jaunes will still not be happy.
Does Labour have the wherewithal to offer them a deal, or must the rest of us all gang up and run them over…..
Will Simon Case fall on his sword? Is Cressida Dick safe? So much more coming even if Pippa has posted all her scoops, which I doubt.
A consequence of the combination of North Shropshire and Chesham & Amersham defeats is likely to be that the Cons will not be inclined to rush into an early General Election. Without those two defeats there was an obvious risk that they would want to do so, shouting “got Brexit done” and “won against Covid” as they bounced UK into another GE in (say) late 2022 or early 2023. Now they will be reluctant to do so, which of course will mean the Brexit consequences will become even more apparent. A slow run towards a GE will also fit the SNP’s strategising over IndyRef2 better. And if anyone thinks that Remain voters think Brexit is over, I’ve got a bridge you might want to buy. FWIW in the Brexit referendum the North Shropshire votes cast for Remain was 78,987 and for Leave 104,166. Therefore given the by-election result I rather suspect that some Brexit voters are now also hoping to change course.
Elated as I am by the by-election result I can’t see how this is going to end well. If Johnson continues in office, as a rather lame duck, the country continues to be badly governed, as he continues to be in thrall to his right wing nutters. If he is replaced by any of the obvious front runners they seem unlikely to do any better. In a country with saner politics he could cut off his right wing and form a short-term emergency government of national unity. But no-one, least of all me, can envisage this happening.
So how do we get out of this mess?
While I fully agree with Mr Allen Green’s point that the drop in votes for the Conservative candidate in comparison to the General Election in 2019 is really rather breathtaking, I made the point on Twitter that the raw numbers are also somewhat distorted by the lower turn out.
I called that a quibble. DAG disagreed that it was a quibble.
https://twitter.com/motomatters/status/1471793765253853190
Whether it is a quibble or not, I thought I would run the numbers (because that’s the sort of thing I like to do, to put the numbers into context and compare them taking the turnout drop into account.
My methodology was first to take the 2019 votes for each party, work out the drop in turnout in 2021 compared with 2019, then calculate how many votes each party would have got had turnout been the only factor. My reasoning is that this filters out people who would have stayed away because it’s a by-election, and leaves you with a clearer picture of how many people actively chose not to vote for a party. It is passive vote change vs active vote change.
(Whether there is any value in my methodology, I live up to you.)
Here are the number of votes for the four main parties in the 2021 by-election
Conservative 12032
Labour 3686
Liberal Democrats 17957
Green 1738
And here is the change in the number of votes for each party compared to GE 2019
Conservative -23412
Labour -8809
Liberal Democrats 12314
Green -52
Now, if you take the 2019 totals (which you can find on the Wikipedia page for the constituency) and compare turnout, 2021 turnout was 67.3% of 2019.
And if you multiply the 2019 votes by the drop in turnout, these are the totals each party SHOULD have got, if turnout was the only variable that changed.
Conservative 23847
Labour 8407
Liberal Democrats 3797
Green 1204
Comparing these numbers with the actual 2021 vote shows the number of voters who actively chose to vote differently, and is quite revealing. 11,815 voters actively rejected the Conservative “lawyer from Birmingham”. Labour also lost over 4,700 votes.
The Liberal Democrats outperformed their predicted performance even more spectacularly: They got 14,000 more votes than the drop in turnout says they should have. The Green Party also had a very good election, over 500 votes ahead of where we might expect them:
Change not attributable to turnout drop
Conservative -11815
Labour -4721
Liberal Democrats 14160
Green 534
Does this mean anything? It reinforces DAG’s point. But it was an interesting exercise, for 10 minutes with a spreadsheet. Feel free to draw your own conclusions.
Love it and congratulations. Wonder how many labour voters saw the light and voted tactically? I hope some surveys are run.
It’s perhaps worth emphasising that it wasn’t just the pro-EU Lib Dem *party* that gained 12314 votes; it was the exact same Lib Dem *candidate* who won this time (having previously stood on a pledge to scrap Brexit without even holding a confirmatory referendum).
All of which only serves to reinforce your point about the Brexit spell having been broken.
Another view might be that the farming community, which was one of the big bedrocks of support for Brexit during the referendum, has finally woken up to the government’s plans for it after Brexit.
The Australian and NZ FTAs will not be good need for them.
Gove’s plans for the successor regime to CAP are also pretty unpleasant for farmers.
They voted with their feet.