3rd June 2022
Let us start with two general propositions.
The first is that the United Kingdom has little manufacturing industry and few natural resources.
Many of the manufactured goods we buy are from abroad, as is much of the energy we consume.
The second is that non-tariff barriers impede any international trade in services.
This means that if there are, for example, shared standards and harmonised recognition schemes then selling services abroad will be easier than if there are not such non-tariff barriers.
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Bearing these propositions in mind, let us now look at a tweet from Tom Tugendhat, the chair of the House of Commons select committee and seen by many as the most sensible possible alternative Prime Minister in the current governing party.
Tugendhat is criticising a proposal from another Conservative politician, Tobias Ellwood:
https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1532445501563469824
Tugendhat’s tweet is worth thinking about, for it is significant.
One obvious point is that his tweet confuses the Single Market with the Common Commercial Policy, that is the European Union’s common trade policy.
They are distinct things – and it is possible to be part of the Single Market and still have an independent trade policy (and thereby ‘new trade deals’) – as the example of Norway demonstrates.
Another point about Tugendhat’s tweet is that it frames shared standards and harmonised recognition scheme as “EU laws” in respect of which the “British people” will have “no say”.
From a commercial – as opposed to a political – perspective those seeking to trade with our European Union neighbours still have to comply with Single Market rules over which they have “no say”.
It is just that such exporters now have added layers of bureaucracy – non-tariff barriers – to deal with so as to show that they comply with Single Market rules.
This is because the purpose of the Single Market was to remove such impediments and so, by now being outside of the Single Market, such impediments are restored.
The Single Market. of course, was driven through (in its current form) in the late 1980s by then Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and the Conservative European Commissioner Lord Cockfield.
The Single Market may be the greatest achievement of Thatcher and her governments, at least in respect of what then became the European Union.
At a stroke, any trader in a member state could trade in another member state because of shared standards and harmonised recognition schemes.
Again, from a commercial perspective, the important thing about shared standards and harmonised recognition schemes is not their political origin, but that they exist.
And other European countries that are not members of the European Union are part of the Single Market.
There is no absolute reason why a post-Brexit United Kingdom could not also be part of the Single Market.
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But.
There is the question of influence and control.
Yet what is often missing in discussions about the future relationship of the United Kingdom with the European Union, is that shared standards and harmonised recognition schemes are necessarily outside the unilateral, absolute control of one ‘side’.
It would be completely open to the European Union and a post-Brexit United Kingdom to agree processes and policies by which both parties can agree to put in place shared standards and harmonised recognition schemes.
And to accept common positions on, say, competition law, state aid and public procurement, and consumer protection.
But without such engagement, our services-dominated economy will be increasingly estranged from European markets from Iceland to Cyprus, and from Finland to Malta.
In other words, we need to have a serious post-Brexit conversation about how the United Kingdom can be part of the Single Market so as to remove the non-tariff barriers to our service-dominated economy.
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To his credit, Tobias Ellwood wants that serious conversation.
His article should be read in full – not just the quotations and summaries you may have seen elsewhere.
Any wise supporter of the government should welcome such a contribution, as this conversation needs to take place.
Even if a government-supporter disagrees with what Ellwood actually says, a prudent government-supporter should respond positively to this attempt to move the conversation forward.
But, no.
The reaction from government-supporters shows we are still trapped in the toxic politics of Brexit.
As this Guardian article describes:
“A Tory MP and arch critic of Boris Johnson has sparked a backlash from Brexiters after suggesting Britain rejoin the EU’s single market to help ease the cost of living crisis.
“Tobias Ellwood’s comments were seized upon by allies of the prime minister as evidence that deposing Johnson would threaten the country’s more distant relationship with Brussels.”
It would appear that Brexit true-believers regard such thinking as somewhere between blasphemy and heresy, if not outright heathenism.
But, as the former army officer Ellwood expressly states:
“If an army general, mid-battle, is mature enough to finesse his strategy to secure mission success, then government should do the same. Let’s have the courage to dare to make operational amendments as we seek to leverage greater success.”
This is the sort of sane pragmatism that would make Ellwood the sort of captain you would want in the trenches in charge of those you care about.
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Now we come back to Tugendhat’s tweet and why it is significant.
Tugendhat could have not tweeted on this topic at all, or he could have tweeted that he welcomed this contribution to this important debate, or even that Ellwood made a good point that should be considered even if to be rejected.
But, no.
Tugendhat tweeted this instead:
https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1532445501563469824
There is nothing in Tugendhat’s tweet that shows he had actually read Ellwood’s article before tweeting about it.
And, as noted above, the third bullet point of Tugendhat’s tweet – ‘no new trade deals’ – is irrelevant, as being part of the Single Market does not prevent an independent trade policy.
So why tweet?
As there is not evidence of Tugendhat having actually read Ellwood’s article, and as there is evidence that Tugendhat does not understand that being part of the Single Market does not stop new trade deals, there must be another reason.
And that reason, of course, is politics – and that is why the tweet is significant.
It signifies that politically we cannot yet move on from Brexit.
We cannot discuss our post-Brexit relationship with the Single Market as that would somehow negate Brexit itself.
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I responded to the tweet as follows:
To which Tugendhat, in turn, responded:
https://twitter.com/TomTugendhat/status/1532489520033239040
To which I said:
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The fact that the United Kingdom should become part of the Single Market does not, of course, mean that we will ever do so – even if the economic and commercial advantages are stark.
And accommodation with the European Union over the Single Market certainly does not require re-joining the union.
But it does require leadership, realism and strategic negotiation, so as to build up joint structures and processes where the United Kingdom and European Union can develop their post-Brexit relationship.
In essence, the sort of leadership the United Kingdom will need from whoever succeeds the current Prime Minister.
But the problem is that we still have to pretend otherwise.
Just like we have to pretend it is a good idea to have a futile ‘war on drugs’, we have to pretend it is somehow not in our national interest to be part of a Single Market with almost every European country between Iceland and Cyprus, and between Finland and Malta.
The critical political question is how we manage to be part of the Single Market from the outside of the European Union.
(And I do not support the United Kingdom rejoining the European Union, and there is no reason to believe the European Union would have the United Kingdom back as a member state.)
It can be done, but it will be difficult – with (genuinely) tough decisions and a need for (genuine) leadership.
But the politics of Brexit and of our current Prime Minister means that even in 2022 we cannot yet have this adult discussion.
And that is the tragedy of our post-Brexit politics.
Indeed, the tragedy is that we do not yet have post-Brexit politics – we are still stuck in the politics of Brexit.
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