6th September 2022
We have today a new Prime Minister.
You may have Very Strong Opinions about them as a person and as a politician.
But let us put those Very Strong Opinions to one side, and let us look at the appointment from a constitutionalist perspective.
Constitutions are about, among other things, parameters of political action – constitutions provide what certain political and other actors can and cannot do, and when.
So the first point to make is that the new Prime Minister only has a short period so as to make any political impression before the next general election.
It is now September 2022 – and the next general election has to be called by December 2024, in just over two years’ time.
The last possible date for an election, once called, is January 2025.
This means that any controversial legislation – especially if it outside the scope of the Conservatives’ 2019 manifesto – is unlikely to get through the House of Lords in time.
And the new Prime Minister may even want to call a general election sooner, which they can do because the Fixed-term Parliaments Act is now repealed.
The second point to make is how weak the new Prime Minister is, despite the governing party’s majority in the House of Commons.
Only 50 of the new Prime Minister’s colleagues supported them on the first vote, out of 358.
The new Prime Minister did not even have a majority support of their parliamentary party at the final round before it went to the party membership vote.
This means that there seems to be little positive support in the Conservative parliamentary party for the new Prime Minister.
Indeed, both the departing Prime Minister and the defeated leadership contender will probably have as much substantial support in the parliamentary party as the new Prime Minister.
The new Prime Minister, in their first appointments, seems to be rewarding their supporters rather than building a party-wide coalition.
As any Prime Minister only has so much autonomous power, the lack of a natural and positive parliamentary majority will be a problem.
The governing party is currently prone to rebellion and revolt, and there is nothing about the appointment of the new Prime Minister and their first cabinet appointments that looks as if this propensity to rebellion and revolt will change.
So, not only is there a looming general election and the practical inability to force contentious measures through the upper chamber, there is the possibility that the new Prime Minister may not even be able to get legislation through the lower chamber.
Within the United Kingdom more widely, the matter of the Northern Irish Protocol is no nearer resolution, and the Scottish government is pressing for a further referendum.
Serious questions about the future of the Union are being posed at a time where the new Prime Minister is not in a strong position.
And all this – all of this – is in addition to the pressing political problems of the cost-of-living crisis and the escalating energy crisis, as well as war in Europe.
Any one of these would be a challenge to a Prime Minister in a strong position.
It is difficult to see how the new Prime Minister, who is in a weak position, is going to be able to address, let alone resolve, these issues.
As this blog has said before: do not underestimate any politician who clambers to the top of what Benjamin Disraeli called the “the greasy pole”.
And this blog will give the new Prime Minister a clean slate.
But.
Given the circumstances of the appointment, the outlook for the new Prime Minister Elizabeth Truss is not looking good.
It is difficult to be optimistic – even if one supports her politically.
Brace, brace, as they say.
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