One year on from one thing, sixteen months on from another thing…

8th September 2023

On this anniversary of Elizabeth II’s death, we are still in the legislative session commenced with the Queen’s Speech of May 2022 – one monarch and two prime ministers (and several cabinet ministers) ago.

This, by itself, illustrates the drift of the current government. Neither Truss nor Sunak when they commenced their premierships signalled a new legislative programme. Instead they carried on with what was, in any case, primarily a gimmicky pick-and-mix miscellany of poorly conceived legislative proposals.

And so we are are still, in one sense, in the age of Johnson. And he is now not even in parliament, let alone the head of a government pushing through his last legislative package.

The knock-on effect of this is, as my Substack has previously averred, that the government is running out of time before the next election to pass legislation – especially anything fundamental or controversial. Many will think this a good thing, but it is not the sign of a government with direction or drive.

We are one year on from one thing, sixteen months on from another thing, and still perhaps a year away from that one thing, a general election, that can bring about any meaningful change.

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The government is running out of time

26th June 2023

In the words of the eminent jurist Paul Simon:

“Time, time, time
See what’s become of me

“Time, time, time
See what’s become of me
While I looked around for my possibilities”

*

One hard structural fact about the politics of the United Kingdom is that the government is running out of time.

By automatic operation of law the next general election has to take place by 28 January 2025.

That gives the current government about 580 days left, maximum, before a general election which many forecast that the governing Conservative party will lose.

About 580 days sounds a lot, but it really is not – at least in parliamentary terms.

That date presupposes that the general election is called at the last possible moment – 17 December 2024 – leaving the longest possible election campaign.

Current speculation is that the next general election will be in October 2024, which means the last parliamentary session will need to be over by September 2024, and given summer breaks, that basically means legislation will need to passed by June/July 2024.

So that is about 365 to 400 days.

*

We are still – remarkably – within the same parliamentary session that commenced two prime ministers and one monarch ago in May 2022.

And as the Hansard Society averred in May, few of the Bills announced in that speech have become law:

It is expected that there will be a new King’s Speech this November.

This means that it is highly likely that there is just one more parliamentary session left before a general election – November 2023 to June/July 2024.

(There is the theoretical possibility of more than one remaining parliamentary term if the government has a sequence of truncated parliamentary sessions, with multiple openings of parliament.)

One implication of there being only one more parliamentary session before an election is that it is probable that there is not enough time to force any new legislation through the House of Lords under the Parliament Act, for that requires a Bill to be approved in successive sessions.

And then there are the recesses:

As one adds up the delays and holidays, and the speculation of an election by October 2024, the gross figure of 580 days becomes a lot less in practical legislative terms.

The grand hourglass of parliamentary time is running out for the current government.

We are not talking years, we are now talking months – and soon we will be talking weeks.

*

And not only time is against them – there is the problem of legislative preparation.

Put simply: this government is not very good at preparing legislation.

As the Hansard Society politely put it:

Parliamentary time for bills should not be, say, “step one’‘ of a process but about “step four” – after policy formulation, consultation and development – all within or by departments.

And so if you factor in the time to actually put together new practical – that is, passable – legislation then not even the maximum 580 days are really enough.

Even if following the conference season this year there is a “whizz-bang” King’s Speech with lots of legislative proposals, that whizzery and bangery needs to being prepared now in departments, and there is not a lot of evidence of any whizzery and bangery taking place anywhere in Whitehall at present.

Not only does the government need enough time to get legislation through parliament and implement it before the next general election, ministers and departments need lead-in times to get the legislation to be in any state to pass.

The time left looks very tight.

Too tight.

*

What we have is a government that not only is running out of time, but in some ways has already ran out of time to do anything radical and substantial in its one (likely) remaining parliamentary term.

And what makes this even more remarkable that this is a government elected in December 2019, on the back of Brexit, which had a substantial majority – only the second overall majority the Conservatives had had since 1992.

In legislative and policy terms, that majority has been largely wasted.

(Which may be a good or bad thing, depending on your politics.)

This is a government running out of possibilities.

*

“Time, time, time
See what’s become of me

“Time, time, time
See what’s become of me
While I looked around for my possibilities”

 

**
This has been cross-posted from my (newly renamed) Empty City substack.

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Process and evidence will cause severe setbacks for populists like Johnson and Trump, but process and evidence are not enough to defeat them

15th June 2023
*
Words! Words! Words! I’m so sick of words!
I get words all day through;
First from him, now from you!
Is that all you blighters can do?
– Eliza Doolittle
*
Words, words, words.
So many words – strong words, vivid words, striking words.
Words like “…a kangaroo court…skewed…sole political objective of finding me guilty…prejudicial…not be tolerated in a normal legal process…incredulous…time-wasting procedural stunt…puzzling…This is rubbish…It is a lie…this deranged conclusion…patently absurd…transparently wrong…Complete tripe…a load of complete tripe…ludicrous…a rehash of their previous non-points…nothing new of substance to say…preposterous…totally ignored…How on earth do these clairvoyants know exactly what was going on at 21.58…It is a measure of the Committee’s desperation that they are trying incompetently and absurdly to tie me to an illicit event…utterly incredible…artifice…Charade…This report is a charade…I was wrong to believe in the Committee or its good faith…The terrible truth is that it is not I who has twisted the truth to suit my purposes…This is a dreadful day for MPs and for democracy…vendetta…trumped up charges”.
All these words, words, words are from this morning’s statement from Boris Johnson.
But sometimes words – even colourful and extreme words – can make no difference.
For against such any sophistical rhetorician, inebriated with the exuberance of their own verbosity, are the twin deadly enemies of the populist and charlatan: process and evidence.
And in this way, today’s Privileges Committee Report has wings that are like a shield of steel.
Words, words, words, will all bounce off.
Each of the findings of the committee is based on stated evidence, and each of the conclusion rests on the findings.
And at key stages the committee has been at pains to ensure Johnson (and his lawyers) had an opportunity to respond to any potentially adverse findings and conclusions.
Try as he may, with ever-stronger words, there is nothing Johnson can do to dislodge the evidence and the findings and the conclusions.
They shall squat there, over him, and they do not care about Johnson’s fierce words.
As such, the privileges committee report complements the federal indictment of Trump.
There, similarly, a calm reasoned, evidenced and through document will be hard for Donald Trump to derail or discredit.
*
Alas, however, the soft and malleable politics of the populists will not be defeated only by process and evidence.
It is only at extremes that process and evidence can be invoked to tame the unruly and untruthful.
The challenge is to defeat populists like Johnson and Trump not with exceptional proceedings where they cannot lie their way through, but in the day-to-day bustle of practical politics.
Unfortunately it is not possible to make every politician sign a statement of truth, under a plausible pain of perjury, for everything they say.
Yes, there will be times where the likes of Johnson and Trump will hit the limits of what they can get away with.
But what those opposed to the likes of Johnson and Trump need to do is find ways of defeating them without resort to processes and evidence.
Process and evidence have their valuable place within any polity, but they are not enough.
The likes of Johnson and Trump need to be defeated politically too.

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Telling the story of how the “serious disruption” public order statutory instrument was passed

14th June 2023

Here is a story about law-making told in different ways.

The law in question is a statutory instrument made under the Public Order Act 1986 – the Public Order Act 1986 (Serious Disruption to the Life of the Community) Regulations 2023 – which comes into force tomorrow.

*

By way of background

A statutory instrument is what is called “secondary legislation” and it has the same effect as primary legislation, as long as it is within the scope of the primary legislation under which it is made.

Statutory instruments are, in effect, executive-made legislation.  They still have to have parliamentary approval, but they are not open to amendment and rarely have debate or a vote.

Often the parliamentary approval of statutory instruments goes through on the nod, but sometimes they need to have a positive vote in favour.

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The government’s version

The first way of telling the story is from the government’s perspective.

The statutory instrument was put to a vote in the House of Commons on Monday with the Home Secretary herself leading the debate.

At the end of the debate there was a contested vote, which the government won:The (elected) House of Commons having shown its approval, the House of Lords did not pass a “fatal” motion against the statutory instrument.

Instead the House of Lords passed a motion (merely) regretting the Statutory Instrument:

The vote (against the government) was as follows:

The House of Lords also had a specific vote on a fatal motion, which was defeated:
And when the official opposition was criticised by for not supporting the fatal motion, a frontbencher was unapologetic:

And this is the first way of telling this story: there was a Commons vote; the Lords showed disdain but did not exercise any veto inn view of the Commons vote; and so the statutory instrument became law as the result of a democratic legislative process.

Told this way, the story is about how laws can and are made by such a democratic legislative process

Nothing to see here.

But.

But but but.

*

The constitutionalist version

There is another way of telling this story.

This account starts with the Public Order Act 2023 when it was a bill before parliament.

At a very late stage of the passage of that bill the government sought to amend it so as to include provisions that were substantially similar to what ended up in the statutory instrument passed this week.

The government failed to get those amendments through the House of Lords. and so they were dropped from the bill before it became an Act.

As a House of Lords committee noted:

The Home Office could not answer these basic questions:For this committee to say that it believes “this raises possible constitutional issues that the House may wish to consider” is serious stuff.

What had happened is that the Home Office, having failed to bounce parliament into accepting these amendments into primary legislation by very late amendments, has come up with this alternative approach.

Told this alternative way, the story is not about how laws can and are made by a democratic legislative process.

Instead, the story is about how a democratic legislative process can be frustrated and circumvented by the executive.

Instead of using primary legislation so as to make substantial (and illiberal) changes to the law, the government has used statutory instrument which cannot be amended or considered in detail, and has used its whipped House of Commons majority to face down Lords opposition.

Plenty to see here.

*

The story may continue

Yet this is not how the story (told in either way) may end.

The thing about statutory instruments is that, unlike primary legislation, they can be challenged at the High Court.

This means that there can sometimes be a sort of constitutional see-saw: the convenience of using statutory instruments (as opposed to primary legislation) can be checked and balanced by an application for judicial review.

And that is what the group Liberty is doing, and its letter before claim is here.

In essence, the argument is that – notwithstanding the parliamentary approval – the statutory instrument is outside the scope of the relevant provisions of the Public Order Act 1986.

Liberty seems to have a good point, but any challenge to secondary legislation is legally difficult and it is rare that any such challenge ever succeeds.

*

The moral of the story?

The moral of the story, however it is told, is perhaps about the general weakness of our constitutional arrangements in respect of limitations placed upon rights and liberties.

A government, using wide enabling legislation, can put legislation into place that it cannot achieve by passing primary legislation.

This cannot be the right way of doing things, even if Labour is correct about these illiberal measures having the support of the House of Commons.

There are some things our constitutional arrangements do well – and here we can wave at Boris Johnson and Elizabeth Truss having both been found repugnant and spat out by our body politic.

But there are things our constitutional arrangements do badly – and the increasing use (and abuse) by the government of secondary legislation to do things they cannot (or will not) get otherwise enacted in primary legislation worrying.

And a government casually and/or cynically using (and abusing) wide enabling powers is not a story that usually ends well.

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What if acceptance of Boris Johnson’s resignation from the House of Commons had been delayed – or even refused?

12th June 2023

For a brief, wonderful moment today it seemed that yet more constitutional drama could be squeezed out of the ongoing antics of former prime minister Boris Johnson.

On Friday Johnson announced his resignation from the House of Commons:

“So I have today written to my Association in Uxbridge and South Ruislip to say that I am stepping down forthwith and triggering an immediate by-election.”

Some (including me) took his deftly worded statement to mean that he was resigning as a Member of Parliament with immediate effect.

But look where “immediate” is actually inserted in his statement.  Clever.

In fact, Johnson did not resign from the House of Commons on Friday.

*

Of course – strictly speaking – a Member of Parliament cannot “resign” – though there is no point in making this distinction in general commentary.

What a voluntarily departing Member of Parliament has to do is to place themselves in disqualification from sitting in the House of Commons.

And in practice, this means applying for and being appointed to one of two ancient offices for profit.

This is section 4 of the House of Commons Disqualification Act 1974:

In practice what this means is that a Member of Parliament has to make an application to the Chancellor of the Exchequer for appointment to one of these offices – and when the Chancellor of the Exchequer endorses the warrant of appointment, the parliamentary seat becomes vacant.

This, in turn, means – thought this is a distinct step – a writ for a by-election can then be moved in the House of Commons.

*

This is what Erskine May, the parliamentary rulebook says:

*

Usually, there is no problem with any of this pantomime – for usually such a resignations are one-offs and occasional.

And so normally the appointments gently alternate between the two ancient offices.

If more than two Members of Parliament resign at once – as when the Northern Irish unionist Members of Parliament did in 1985 – the appointments have to be staggered so that each office is nominally filled in turn.

These are the lists from Wikipedia of the most recent appointments to both offices, and the reasons for the Member of Parliament leaving the House of Commons:

And although the system does not really make much sense, and is based ultimately on a constitutional fiction (there is no pay – or profit – for holding the office), it works.

There may be no way of resigning as a Member of Parliament in a technical sense, but there is a means of doing so by employing some quaint, archaic mumbo-jumbo.

It is another example of how our constitutional arrangements miss the direct point, and so we have to have a charming work-around instead.

*

But.

Earlier today there was the prospect of Johnson bringing excitement to another odd little constitutional corner – though here unwillingly on his part.

(And remember constitutional matters should not be exciting, they should be dull.)

What if…

…the Chancellor of the Exchequer did not appoint Johnson to one of these two offices?

What if, in effect, Johnson’s resignation from the House of Commons was delayed or even refused?

According to the fine experts at the House of Commons Library, it is possible for the appointment to be refused by the Chancellor of the Exchequer – thereby preventing the resignation from taking effect- though this has not happened since Victorian times:

*

There is an argument that a Member of Parliament facing an imminent report into their conduct should not be able to resign and avoid any sanction.

And if, in such circumstances, the Chancellor of the Exchequer refused to make the appointment until after the Commons voted on the report and any sanction, it is difficult to see what Johnson could have done about it.

(Though it would have been fascinating and fun to see whether this exercise of discretion by a government minister was amenable to judicial review by the High Court.)

Johnson would have been forced to stay as a Member of Parliament while the privileges committee report was debated and any sanction voted on.

And it is hard to see how he could have avoided it.

*

But alas, we shall not have this constitutional amusement.

For this afternoon Johnson resigned.

Johnson was appointed to the stewardship of the Chiltern Hundreds, and Wikipedia was updated accordingly.

So we will have to wait a bit longer for our next constitutional excitement.

**

For more on this procedure, please read the excellent House of Commons Library briefing.

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The resignation of Boris Johnson from the House of Commons

10 June 2023

The silence now seems significant: we should have realised something was up.

Earlier this week former Prime Minister Boris Johnson received the draft report of the Privileges Committee.

And then, something did not happen.

We did not have leaks to political journalists that Johnson was going to be “cleared”.

We did not even have “friends” quoted as being “increasingly optimistic” that Johnson was going to escape a recommendation that he be suspended for ten or more days, which could have led ultimately to a by-election.

We had nothing which could be an attempt to either bounce the committee, or the House of Commons, or public opinion.

Instead, we had silence.

*

As is well-known, Johnson has had “top lawyers” – at public expense – to advise him on what is non-legal, parliamentary matter.

(How and why Johnson secured public funding for this is a story for another day.)

But presumably his lawyers told him that the report was unassailable.

They could again send a raft of legalistic objections to the committee but, frankly, the game is up.

You may be old enough to remember Johnson briefing that a previous exercise in legalistic nonsense was “absolutely devastating” to the committee.

Yet in the end the absolute devastation was to Johnson’s current political and parliamentary career.

*

Perhaps without “top lawyers” giving frank and firm advice Johnson may have pressed on – and, if so, some may say the public money was well spent in bring finality to the matter.

Remember, this was a process in which Johnson had many inherent advantages: a Conservative majority on the committee, who could only make a recommendation to the House of Commons anyway; a Conservative majority in the House of Commons – a majority brought about by his leadership at the last general election; and, if a by-election was required, a Conservative majority in his own seat, in a city where he once was a popular and re-elected mayor.

These structural advantages were in addition to expensive “top lawyers” at public expense – and to the immense influence he has over the media narrative.

All these advantages meant that the process was heavily biased: but heavily biased in Johnson’s favour.

And somehow, Johnson still lost.

*

The committee can – and should – publish the report anyway, so that we can see for ourselves whether it corresponds to Johnson’s attack on the integrity of the committee and its report.

By resigning now, rather than in response to a published report or to an adverse parliamentary vote, Johnson had the best chance of “framing the narrative”, and he took it.

This, again, should have been obvious to us when Johnson did not even try to spin the draft report this week.

And we had the sound of silence instead.

*

“Is there any point to which you would wish to draw my attention?”

“To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.”

“The dog did nothing in the night-time.”

“That was the curious incident,” remarked Sherlock Holmes.

– Silver Blaze, The Memoirs of Sherlock Holmes

 

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Can anything actually be done to improve parliamentary scrutiny?

18th May 2023

Over at The House Magazine – in effect, parliament’s in-flight magazine – there is a thoughtful and informative article by Dr Alice Lilly entitled The Slow Death of Parliamentary Scrutiny.

One merit of her piece is that is looks at other long-term and structural reasons for the difficulties parliament have in scrutinising draft legislation – that is, other than the obvious one that any government does not want to be scrutinised.

And although ministers and their media supporters often play-act about the undemocratic House of Lords, it is plain that the government is increasingly relying on the upper house to save the government from itself in the legislative process.

Peers are now doing the tidying up of bills that really should be done before legislation is even presented to parliament.

And, in turn, departments, are seeking to shove more through by means of unscrutinised secondary legislation.

In essence: the House of Commons is becoming an ornament – though not a pretty one – rather than an instrument of the state.

But.

Although the problem can be stated, it is less clear what – if anything – could be the solution.

Scrutinising legislation is dull, thankless work – and so, unless it is made a well-resourced priority for active members of the the House of Commons, then the natural tendency will be for politicians to do other things.

And one can take for granted that ministers (of any party) and officials will seek to avoid scrutiny if they can.

Abolishing – or restricting – the House of Lords would cause more problems, unless such a change was part of a broader package of fundamental parliamentary reform.

The current situation is far from ideal – and it may be unsustainable: for there is only so much one can expect from members of the House of Lords.

Yet unless Members of Parliament make scrutiny of legislation a priority – and insist to ministers and departments that enough time is provided for scrutiny, and also insist on there being proper resources in place for that scrutiny – then it may be we have a worsening problem without any likely solution.

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A stitch in time saves…

24th March 2023

Yesterday’s post on the appearance of Boris Johnson before the committee of privileges was supposed to the last on that topic…

…but.

It is really such a delicious constitutional moment – the legislature holding the former head of the executive to account with contested views of whether there should be a judicial process is a heady concoction of the supposed separation of powers.

And so here is a further thought, brought about by the lethal questioning of Johnson by the Conservative backbencher Alberto Costa on exactly what advice Johnson had taken, and from whom.

Johnson admitted that he did not taken legal or any other official advice before telling the House of Commons that he had been advised that the applicable rules and guidance had been followed.

It seems the advice was merely from a political adviser.

Well.

Johnson has certainly taken a lot of legal advice since.

If only he had taken legal advice at the right time, then he would have been saved having to take all this legal advice afterwards.

A stitch in time saves the need for any stitch-up later.

Have a good weekend.

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The Committee of Privileges and the Equality of Arms

23rd March 2023

Here are some further – and perhaps final – thoughts about the appearance of the former prime minister before the committee of privileges of the House of Commons this week.

Boris Johnson not only “lawyered-up” – he was as lawyered-up as it is humanly possible to be.

At his side as he gave his evidence he had a senior partner of the leading white-collar criminal law firm, and just behind him he had one of the leading barristers on due process and fundamental rights of his generation.

Before Johnson’s appearance there had been submission after submission – all at the taxpayers’ expense.

For a politician who has routinely derided legal aid lawyers and activist judges throughout his career, he certainly ensured he had resort to the best possible legal advice when it mattered to him.

And the strange thing is that this was not even a legal proceeding: this was entirely a matter for parliament and not for any court.

But Johnson was not taking any chances: he was lawyered-up to the hilts when no lawyers were needed at all.

However, because he had lawyered-up, and his lawyers had come up with elaborate and technical arguments about fairness and evidence, then the committee responded in kind.

And the the committee had access to its own legal advice, not least that of Sir Ernest Ryder – the former lord justice of appeal and senior president of tribunals.

There are few, if any, lawyers with a better understanding of the rules of evidence and fairness.

And so yesterday saw that the heavily prepped Johnson met and confounded by an even better prepped committee.

The questioning was short and relevant, and rarely outpaced the disclosed evidence, and Johnson was often left at a disadvantage.

For example, Johnson was forced to concede that the “advice” on which he supposedly advised was not from any official or lawyer – but from a political appointed adviser.

Like a tag team, each member of the committee had prepared the ground they had to cover so that as much ground as possible was covered.

From a lawyer’s perspective, the committee hearing was a forensic treat.

But.

A parliamentary committee hearing should not be such a legalistic exercise.

How much better, from a political perspective, if Johnson had simply turned up to tell the truth to a committee of his fellow members of parliament – instead of this legalistic arms race.

As it was, the committee was more than a match to Johnson’s legalistic approach.

And, of course, Johnson is (as this blog has previously averred) playing the long game of trying to influence what sanction follows, if any.

Yet in the shorter-term, the only thing Johnson has gained by lawyering-up will be a more tightly robust and comprehensive committee report than otherwise would have been produced.

*

If only others in our society had access to such an equality of legal arms.

Even those who are facing an actual legal or judicial process.

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Johnson at the Privileges Committee – a post-hearing analysis

22 March 2023

The first thing to note about the appearance of Boris Johnson at the hearing today of the committee of privileges is that how little difference it will probably make to the committee’s report.

This is because the bulk of the report will be based on documentary evidence and the written evidence of other witnesses.

On certain points there is the possibility that the oral evidence of Johnson may make a difference – where it will rebut or even refute what the evidence would otherwise point to.

This is to be expected – and it can be compared with civil litigation where the respective merits of the parties’ cases can often become plain on disclosure of documentary evidence and the exchange of witness statements, long before any actual trial and cross-examination.

As such, today’s hearing was not an all-or-nothing gladiatorial bout.

For, as far as the committee’s report is concerned, what Johnson had to say may only have marginal importance, and on some points his evidence may make no difference at all.

Instead, and as this blog averred would be the case yesterday, Johnson gave the impression that he was playing to other audiences – that of his fellow parliamentarians (who would have to decide on any sanction) and to the media and the public (who would aid him in placing pressure on parliamentarians).

His combative and sometimes even confrontational performance makes no sense if you see it as an attempt to shape the committee’s report – but it made a lot of sense in his objectives to discredit the committee and any adverse report, and to frame himself as a victim.

Unfortunately for his strategy and tactics, he fell flat on at least a couple of occasions, including when he indicated that he would only accept the committee’s findings as fair if he was cleared.

No doubt if he is “cleared” he will hold the committee up as an exemplar of fairness and thoroughness.

And this will not be the first time he has wanted his cake and to eat it.

*

Long term followers of this blog and this story may recall that it was observed last year that the “showing leadership” formulation was highly successful in heading off fixed penalty notices from the police.

At a stroke Johnson had a plausible explanation for being at almost all the gatherings – even thought those also attending got the penalties.

The only gathering for which that explanation could not work was for his own birthday, and so that is why he perhaps got a penalty for that and not any other gatherings.

I do not know if that theory is true, but it so far matches the facts better than any other explanation.

Today showed that Johnson is fully into his stride with the “showing leadership” explanation for his attendance at the gatherings.

The problem, however, is that a defence for his attendance which works with the police for breaking the criminal law does not necessarily work as an excuse for whether he knew the gatherings generally would be against the non-legal guidance.

It may well be that the price of heading off more than one fixed penalty notice is that Johnson now has no real answer to the hard questions of this committee about what he would have known at the time.

Johnson also had no real answer today to where some commentators think he is most exposed – his failure to correct the record as soon as he realised what he said was not correct.

*

Nobody knows what the committee will decide – and, if they say Johnson is in contempt, what the House of Commons will determine as any sanction.

The committee may still find that Johnson made those statements in good faith and that he corrected the record in a timely manner – even though the other evidence points to a breach of privilege.

Perhaps.

But whether the “greased piglet” gets away (again) without serious sanction may be determined by the audiences to whom Johnson was playing today.

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